ACMR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ACMR - ACM Research, Inc. Class A Common Stock
$37.93
-2.14 (-5.34%)
▼
5d:
-15.39%
30d:
-31.88%
90d:
-6.62%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 14, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: ACMR is down 15.4% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: ACMR is down 15.4% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$102.12
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$63.41
40.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ACMR is currently trading at $37.93, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $42.16 to $59.32. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 16.6) compared to its historical average (23.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACMR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $37.83. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $70.50 (+85.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACMR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $37.83. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $70.50 (+85.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$42.16 -
$59.32
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-5.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading 85.9% below Wall St target ($70.50)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -15.4% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$42.16 -
$59.32
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$37.83
Resistance Level
$48.66
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.64
Wall Street Target
$70.50
(+85.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-77.7%
Profit Margin
10.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.6 vs 23.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$34.14
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$30.72
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$27.65
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→23)
$38.23
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 27.6%)
$105.89
(+179%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.6, Growth: 27.6%)
$78.82
(+108%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.1, Growth: 27.6%)
$67.00
(+77%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (32x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 31.79 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.37
Bull Case
$79.73
(+78%)
Analyst growth 66.4%, PE expands to 35.0
Base Case
$72.48
(+62%)
Market implied 66.4%, PE stable at 31.8
Bear Case
$29.61
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 27.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.6 to 23.0
Stabilization Target:
$52.44
(+38.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+38.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 5:35 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:35 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:35 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ACMR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Tracy Liu
SELL
15000 shares
2026-03-11
Tracy Liu
SELL
45000 shares
2026-03-10
David H Wang
SELL
60000 shares
2025-12-04
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