ACR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ACR - ACRES Commercial Realty Corp.
$19.05
0.13 (0.69%)
▲
5d:
+0.26%
30d:
+2.7%
90d:
-11.02%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
28d
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Bottom Line:
🚀 STRONG BUY: ACR shows excellent value with unusually cheap options (IV 11th percentile) and market pricing in only 1.0% annual growth despite strong fundamentals. High conviction opportunity.
🚀 STRONG BUY: ACR shows excellent value with unusually cheap options (IV 11th percentile) and market pricing in only 1.0% annual growth despite strong fundamentals. High conviction opportunity.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$35.65
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.13
13.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ACR is currently trading at $19.05, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $18.67 to $19.12. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 23.4) is in line with its historical norms (22.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACR is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $18.70. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ACR has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (11th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $24.50 (+29.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACR is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $18.70. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ACR has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (11th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $24.50 (+29.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$18.67 -
$19.12
Company Quality Score
65/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
11th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 11th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 29.5% below Wall St target ($24.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$18.67 -
$19.12
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.33
(7.0%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$18.70
Resistance Level
$19.66
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.36
Wall Street Target
$24.50
(+29.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-5.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
272.2%
Profit Margin
24.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.0% premium
PE vs Historical
23.4 vs 22.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$19.11
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$19.30
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$19.49
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→23)
PE COMPRESSION
$18.86
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 23.4, Growth: 33.9%)
$45.41
(+140%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.4, Growth: 33.9%)
$43.45
(+130%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 33.9%)
$36.93
(+95%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 10.64 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.84
Bull Case
$23.58
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 11.2
Base Case
$19.53
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 10.6
Bear Case
$14.94
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 9.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 11:43 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:43 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:43 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ACR showing a specific setup today?
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0
Buys
20
Sells
Net
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