ADEA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ADEA - Adeia Inc. Common Stock
$26.93
-2.95 (-9.87%)
▼
5d:
-15.42%
30d:
-6.91%
90d:
+43.78%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 11, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
ADEA is down 3.5% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $30 2026-06-18 with 1,150 OI. Call ratio: 100% View Scanner →
Strength: 6.7/10
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1 traders called ADEA this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: ADEA is down 15.4% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: ADEA is down 15.4% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$31.16
Based on 6.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$19.35
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ADEA is currently trading at $26.93, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $27.69 to $31.52. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 19.3) compared to its historical average (14.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 9.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADEA is showing support break momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $26.84. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 9.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $37.00 (+23.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADEA is showing support break momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $26.84. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 9.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $37.00 (+23.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$27.69 -
$31.52
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-9.9%)
- BULLISH: Trading 23.8% below Wall St target ($37.00)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 9.5% growth which is achievable
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -15.4% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$27.69 -
$31.52
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$26.84
Resistance Level
$33.70
Current Trend
Support Break
Technical data as of
May 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.30
Wall Street Target
$37.00
(+23.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
100.0%
Profit Margin
26.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+9.5% premium
PE vs Historical
19.3 vs 14.7
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+9.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$32.72
(+10%)
2-Year Target
$35.83
(+20%)
3-Year Target
$39.23
(+31%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→15)
PE COMPRESSION
$29.88
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 9.0%)
$44.27
(+48%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.3, Growth: 9.0%)
$38.71
(+30%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.7, Growth: 9.0%)
$29.48
(-1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (29x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 28.88 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.09
Bull Case
$49.19
(+65%)
Analyst growth 42.0%, PE expands to 31.8
Base Case
$44.72
(+50%)
Market implied 42.0%, PE stable at 28.9
Bear Case
$21.41
(-28%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 2:41 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:41 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:41 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ADEA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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