AFYA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AFYA - Afya Limited Class A Common Shares
$13.81
-0.29 (-2.06%)
▼
5d:
-0.72%
30d:
-10.9%
90d:
-4.69%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 14, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AFYA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: AFYA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$20.31
Based on 6.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.61
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 1.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AFYA is currently trading at $13.81, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.94 to $15.42. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 1.3) is in line with its historical norms (1.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 3.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AFYA is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $13.72. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AFYA has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.96 (+22.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AFYA is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $13.72. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AFYA has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.96 (+22.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$13.94 -
$15.42
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 22.8% below Wall St target ($16.96)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$13.94 -
$15.42
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$13.72
Resistance Level
$15.03
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.31
Wall Street Target
$16.96
(+22.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
3.2%
Profit Margin
20.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
1.3 vs 1.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.40
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$12.99
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$12.60
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 1→1)
$13.45
(-3%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 9.3%)
$302.57
(+2091%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.3, Growth: 9.3%)
$18.02
(+31%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.1, Growth: 9.3%)
$15.31
(+11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (1x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.29 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.70
Bull Case
$31.02
(+125%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 9.1
Base Case
$28.20
(+104%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 8.3
Bear Case
$9.59
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 1.3 to 1.4
Stabilization Target:
$14.73
(+6.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 8:48 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:48 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:48 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AFYA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
12
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
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