AFYA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AFYA - Afya Limited Class A Common Shares
$15.27
0.27 (1.80%)
▲
5d:
+3.67%
30d:
+6.04%
90d:
+2.0%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 12, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AFYA is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.8% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: AFYA is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.8% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$20.83
Based on 7.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.93
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 1.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AFYA is currently trading at $15.27, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.03 to $14.78. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 1.5) is in line with its historical norms (1.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AFYA is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $15.37. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AFYA has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AFYA is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $15.37. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AFYA has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$14.03 -
$14.78
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($16.38)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$14.03 -
$14.78
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$13.51
Resistance Level
$15.37
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.50
Wall Street Target
$16.38
(+7.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
3.2%
Profit Margin
20.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.8% premium
PE vs Historical
1.5 vs 1.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$15.54
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$15.82
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$16.11
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 2→1)
PE COMPRESSION
$15.08
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 11.7%)
$310.21
(+1932%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.5, Growth: 11.7%)
$21.30
(+40%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.3, Growth: 11.7%)
$18.10
(+19%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (2x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.32 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.61
Bull Case
$33.00
(+116%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 10.3
Base Case
$30.00
(+97%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 9.3
Bear Case
$10.20
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 8:59 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:59 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:59 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AFYA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
12
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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SELL
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2026-04-17
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14000 shares
2026-04-13
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SELL
16279 shares
2026-04-09
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