AGNC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AGNC - AGNC Investment Corp. Common Stock
$11.40
-0.57 (-4.76%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 02, 2026
2d
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1 traders called AGNC this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AGNC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.1% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AGNC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.1% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$11.03
Based on 1.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6.85
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AGNC is currently trading at $11.40, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.91 to $11.81. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 8.0) compared to its historical average (6.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AGNC is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $11.37. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AGNC is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $11.37. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$10.91 -
$11.81
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.8%)
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($11.33)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 5.1% growth expectation is conservative given 776% recent growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$10.91 -
$11.81
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.37
Resistance Level
$12.19
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.98
Wall Street Target
$11.33
(-5.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
546.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
775.9%
Profit Margin
92.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.1% premium
PE vs Historical
8.0 vs 6.9
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.58
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$13.22
(+11%)
3-Year Target
$13.90
(+16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→7)
PE COMPRESSION
$12.02
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: -1.4%)
$32.11
(+168%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.0, Growth: -1.4%)
$11.49
(-4%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.8, Growth: -1.4%)
$9.77
(-18%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.28 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.47
Bull Case
$14.12
(+18%)
Analyst growth 5.5%, PE expands to 9.1
Base Case
$12.83
(+7%)
Market implied 5.5%, PE stable at 8.3
Bear Case
$8.28
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 4:15 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:15 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:15 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AGNC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced AGNC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AGNC price and gamma walls.
