AGO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AGO - Assured Guaranty, LTD
$80.41
1.12 (1.41%)
▲
5d:
-1.28%
30d:
-6.73%
90d:
-11.3%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 14, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AGO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AGO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$144.16
Based on 9.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$89.51
10.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AGO is currently trading at $80.41, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $81.66 to $86.58. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.1) compared to its historical average (11.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 642.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AGO is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $79.16. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AGO has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (6th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $105.75 (+31.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AGO is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $79.16. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AGO has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (6th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $105.75 (+31.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$81.66 -
$86.58
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
6th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 6th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 31.5% below Wall St target ($105.75)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$81.66 -
$86.58
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.79
(3.5%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$79.16
Resistance Level
$84.60
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.08
Wall Street Target
$105.75
(+31.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-37.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
642.4%
Profit Margin
60.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.1 vs 11.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$76.55
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$72.88
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$69.38
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→12)
$80.51
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 14.3%)
$265.99
(+231%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.1, Growth: 14.3%)
$119.99
(+49%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.6, Growth: 14.3%)
$101.99
(+27%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 7.88 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.26
Bull Case
$69.09
(-15%)
Analyst growth -22.3%, PE expands to 8.7
Base Case
$62.81
(-23%)
Market implied -22.3%, PE stable at 7.9
Bear Case
$54.95
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.1 to 11.7
Stabilization Target:
$93.31
(+16.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 8:26 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:26 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:26 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is AGO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
15
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Lorin Radtke
SELL
1219 shares
2026-03-04
Guaranty Ltd Assured
SELL
237 shares
2026-01-29
Guaranty Ltd Assured
SELL
4562 shares
2026-01-27
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