ESNT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ESNT - Essent Group LTD
$64.85
0.33 (0.51%)
▲
5d:
+4.85%
30d:
+15.41%
90d:
+11.33%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 14, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ESNT is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.3% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: ESNT is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.3% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$81.35
Based on 5.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$50.51
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ESNT is currently trading at $64.85, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $57.20 to $61.26. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.4) is in line with its historical norms (8.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ESNT is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $60.75. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ESNT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ESNT is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $60.75. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ESNT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$57.20 -
$61.26
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
53.3%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ESNT? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+5.9% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($67.88)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$57.20 -
$61.26
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$55.34
Resistance Level
$60.75
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.40
Wall Street Target
$67.88
(+4.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
7.7%
Profit Margin
53.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.3% premium
PE vs Historical
8.4 vs 8.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$65.69
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$66.55
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$67.41
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$65.03
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 6.8%)
$204.69
(+216%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.4, Growth: 6.8%)
$78.92
(+22%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.1, Growth: 6.8%)
$67.08
(+3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.18 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.03
Bull Case
$77.97
(+20%)
Analyst growth 9.9%, PE expands to 10.1
Base Case
$70.88
(+9%)
Market implied 9.9%, PE stable at 9.2
Bear Case
$43.87
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 5:13 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:13 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:13 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ESNT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Mary Lourdes Gibbons
SELL
7628 shares
2026-04-20
Mary Lourdes Gibbons
SELL
872 shares
2026-04-17
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