RYAN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RYAN - Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc.
$31.81
0.61 (1.94%)
▲
5d:
+1.58%
30d:
-14.89%
90d:
-17.84%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: RYAN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: RYAN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$61.54
Based on 9.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$38.21
16.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RYAN is currently trading at $31.80, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $31.32 to $36.43. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.4) compared to its historical average (17.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 110.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RYAN is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $32.44. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: RYAN has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $42.88 (+37.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RYAN is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $32.44. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: RYAN has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $42.88 (+37.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$31.32 -
$36.43
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 37.4% below Wall St target ($42.88)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$31.32 -
$36.43
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$29.28
Resistance Level
$32.44
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.39
Wall Street Target
$42.88
(+37.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
110.1%
Profit Margin
3.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.4 vs 17.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$28.74
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$26.47
(-15%)
3-Year Target
$24.37
(-22%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→17)
$31.12
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 14.3%)
$76.59
(+146%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.4, Growth: 14.3%)
$46.54
(+49%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.4, Growth: 14.3%)
$39.56
(+27%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (38x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 37.91 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.82
Bull Case
$68.40
(+119%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 41.7
Base Case
$62.18
(+99%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 37.9
Bear Case
$21.14
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 32.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.4 to 17.1
Stabilization Target:
$39.84
(+27.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+27.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 3:32 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:32 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:32 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is RYAN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
1
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Patrick G Ryan Jr
BUY
25500 shares
2026-02-23
Patrick G Ryan Jr
BUY
365 shares
2026-02-20
Timothy William Turner
SELL
129570 shares
2025-12-12
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