RDN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RDN - Radian Group Inc.
$36.98
0.09 (0.24%)
▲
5d:
-2.84%
30d:
+7.16%
90d:
+12.68%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: RDN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: RDN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$45.92
Based on 3.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$28.52
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RDN is currently trading at $36.98, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $34.57 to $36.82. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.7) is in line with its historical norms (7.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RDN is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $34.96, while resistance sits at $38.59.
Market Sentiment: RDN has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $42.40 (+14.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RDN is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $34.96, while resistance sits at $38.59.
Market Sentiment: RDN has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $42.40 (+14.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$34.57 -
$36.82
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
59.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($42.40)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$34.57 -
$36.82
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$34.96
Resistance Level
$38.59
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.72
Wall Street Target
$42.40
(+14.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
58.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-9.0%
Profit Margin
41.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.7 vs 7.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$36.26
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$35.65
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$35.04
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→7)
$37.00
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 2.7%)
$131.05
(+255%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.7, Growth: 2.7%)
$39.98
(+8%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.7, Growth: 2.7%)
$33.99
(-8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.55 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.29
Bull Case
$51.58
(+40%)
Analyst growth 27.9%, PE expands to 9.4
Base Case
$46.89
(+27%)
Market implied 27.9%, PE stable at 8.6
Bear Case
$24.94
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.7 to 7.1
Stabilization Target:
$38.95
(+5.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 3:33 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:33 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:33 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is RDN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Edward J Hoffman
SELL
15000 shares
2026-04-23
Edward J Hoffman
SELL
13009 shares
2026-04-17
Edward J Hoffman
SELL
1991 shares
2026-04-10
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