RDN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RDN - Radian Group Inc.
$37.94
0.22 (0.58%)
▲
5d:
+2.54%
30d:
+12.28%
90d:
+14.9%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
23d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: RDN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: RDN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$46.15
Based on 4.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$28.66
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RDN is currently trading at $37.94, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $33.90 to $36.61. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.9) is in line with its historical norms (6.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RDN is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $36.29. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: RDN has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.67 (+15.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RDN is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $36.29. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: RDN has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.67 (+15.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$33.90 -
$36.61
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
59.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($43.67)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$33.90 -
$36.61
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$33.31
Resistance Level
$36.29
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.88
Wall Street Target
$43.67
(+15.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
58.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-9.0%
Profit Margin
41.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.9 vs 6.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$37.83
(0%)
2-Year Target
$37.71
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$37.60
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→7)
$37.68
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 3.9%)
$134.44
(+254%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.9, Growth: 3.9%)
$42.50
(+12%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.9, Growth: 3.9%)
$36.12
(-5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.79 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.29
Bull Case
$53.30
(+41%)
Analyst growth 28.5%, PE expands to 9.7
Base Case
$48.45
(+28%)
Market implied 28.5%, PE stable at 8.8
Bear Case
$25.65
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.9 to 6.9
Stabilization Target:
$38.02
(+0.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 05, 2026 7:51 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:51 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:51 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is RDN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Edward J Hoffman
SELL
15000 shares
2026-04-23
Edward J Hoffman
SELL
13009 shares
2026-04-17
Edward J Hoffman
SELL
1991 shares
2026-04-10
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