NMIH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NMIH - NMI Holdings Inc. Common Stock
$37.64
-0.03 (-0.08%)
▼
5d:
-3.16%
30d:
-3.06%
90d:
-5.07%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NMIH shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NMIH shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$50.35
Based on 4.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$31.26
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NMIH is currently trading at $37.64, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $37.60 to $40.32. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.9) is in line with its historical norms (7.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NMIH is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $36.09, while resistance sits at $39.18.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $46.17 (+22.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NMIH is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $36.09, while resistance sits at $39.18.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $46.17 (+22.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$37.60 -
$40.32
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 22.6% below Wall St target ($46.17)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$37.60 -
$40.32
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$36.10
Resistance Level
$39.18
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.92
Wall Street Target
$46.17
(+22.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.9%
Profit Margin
53.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.9 vs 7.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$36.95
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$36.25
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$35.56
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→7)
$37.51
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 5.7%)
$141.48
(+276%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.9, Growth: 5.7%)
$44.43
(+18%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.9, Growth: 5.7%)
$37.76
(+0%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 7.54 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.92
Bull Case
$45.12
(+20%)
Analyst growth 10.6%, PE expands to 8.3
Base Case
$41.02
(+9%)
Market implied 10.6%, PE stable at 7.5
Bear Case
$25.21
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.9 to 7.3
Stabilization Target:
$39.73
(+5.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 3:32 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:32 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:32 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NMIH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
9
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Bradley M Shuster
SELL
18953 shares
2026-03-24
Bradley M Shuster
SELL
18996 shares
2026-03-19
Bradley M Shuster
SELL
18976 shares
2026-03-12
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