AGX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AGX - Argan, Inc
$347.11
-8.40 (-2.36%)
▼
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 15, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AGX trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -9.3% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AGX trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -9.3% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$368.05
Based on 9.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$228.53
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AGX is currently trading at $347.11, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $315.61 to $365.41. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 37.2) compared to its historical average (49.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 8.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AGX is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $335.53, while resistance sits at $400.00.
Market Sentiment: AGX has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (8th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AGX is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $335.53, while resistance sits at $400.00.
Market Sentiment: AGX has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (8th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$315.61 -
$365.41
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
8th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
82.7%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 8th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($361.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$315.61 -
$365.41
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$31.82
(9.2%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$335.53
Resistance Level
$400.00
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
37.22
Wall Street Target
$361.00
(+1.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-2.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
8.5%
Profit Margin
13.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
37.2 vs 49.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$322.45
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$292.46
(-18%)
3-Year Target
$265.26
(-25%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 37→50)
$355.60
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 37.2, Growth: 14.2%)
$530.17
(+49%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 14.2%)
$317.62
(-11%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 14.2%)
$269.98
(-24%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (42x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (37x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 42.17 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.51
Bull Case
$443.03
(+28%)
Analyst growth 12.2%, PE expands to 46.4
Base Case
$402.76
(+16%)
Market implied 12.2%, PE stable at 42.2
Bear Case
$244.03
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 35.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 37.2 to 49.9
Stabilization Target:
$476.58
(+34.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+34.1%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 6:02 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:02 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:02 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AGX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
16
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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SELL
6493 shares
2025-10-20
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SELL
2000 shares
2025-10-17
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10000 shares
2025-10-15
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Advanced AGX Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AGX price and gamma walls.
