ALRM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALRM - Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.
$43.80
0.08 (0.18%)
▲
5d:
+3.01%
30d:
+0.78%
90d:
-0.99%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 07, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ALRM trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.1% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ALRM trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.1% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$64.88
Based on 5.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$40.29
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALRM is currently trading at $43.80, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $43.22 to $46.36. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 14.8) compared to its historical average (16.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALRM is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $41.49, while resistance sits at $47.71.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $59.00 (+34.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALRM is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $41.49, while resistance sits at $47.71.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $59.00 (+34.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$43.22 -
$46.36
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 34.7% below Wall St target ($59.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$43.22 -
$46.36
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$41.49
Resistance Level
$47.71
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.78
Wall Street Target
$59.00
(+34.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-10.3%
Profit Margin
12.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.8 vs 16.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$42.00
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$40.28
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$38.63
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→17)
$43.90
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 6.9%)
$79.58
(+82%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.8, Growth: 6.9%)
$53.50
(+22%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.6, Growth: 6.9%)
$45.47
(+4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.25 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.41
Bull Case
$59.47
(+36%)
Analyst growth 22.9%, PE expands to 20.1
Base Case
$54.06
(+23%)
Market implied 22.9%, PE stable at 18.3
Bear Case
$29.90
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.8 to 16.8
Stabilization Target:
$49.77
(+13.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+13.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 22, 2026 6:49 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:49 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:49 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALRM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kevin Christopher Bradley
SELL
1510 shares
2026-03-18
Jeffrey A Bedell
SELL
22727 shares
2025-12-16
Jeffrey A Bedell
SELL
2273 shares
2025-12-12
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