ALRM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALRM - Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.
$49.87
0.18 (0.36%)
▲
5d:
+7.62%
30d:
+10.85%
90d:
+14.2%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 6, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
29d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ALRM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.6% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ALRM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.6% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$64.21
Based on 5.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$39.87
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALRM is currently trading at $49.87, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $44.22 to $47.42. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.8) is in line with its historical norms (16.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.6% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALRM is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $50.12. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ALRM has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $60.00 (+20.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALRM is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $50.12. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ALRM has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $60.00 (+20.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$44.22 -
$47.42
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+5.2% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 20.3% below Wall St target ($60.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.6% growth with 11.0% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$44.22 -
$47.42
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$43.06
Resistance Level
$50.12
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jul 6, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.78
Wall Street Target
$60.00
(+20.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-10.3%
Profit Margin
12.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.6% premium
PE vs Historical
16.8 vs 16.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$50.17
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$50.47
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$50.77
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→17)
PE COMPRESSION
$49.92
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 7.1%)
$79.45
(+59%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.8, Growth: 7.1%)
$61.22
(+23%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.3, Growth: 7.1%)
$52.04
(+4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.62 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.41
Bull Case
$67.39
(+35%)
Analyst growth 23.3%, PE expands to 22.7
Base Case
$61.27
(+23%)
Market implied 23.3%, PE stable at 20.6
Bear Case
$33.79
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 07, 2026 6:33 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:33 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:33 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALRM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kevin Christopher Bradley
SELL
1510 shares
2026-03-18
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