AMAT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AMAT - Applied Materials Inc
$323.12
-14.05 (-4.17%)
▼
5d:
-10.69%
30d:
-13.21%
90d:
+23.38%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 21, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: AMAT is down 10.7% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: AMAT is down 10.7% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$673.89
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$418.43
22.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AMAT is currently trading at $323.12, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $338.98 to $373.39. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 23.3) compared to its historical average (26.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 75.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMAT is showing support break momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $323.48. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $410.62 (+27.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMAT is showing support break momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $323.48. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $410.62 (+27.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$338.98 -
$373.39
Company Quality Score
39/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
Protect Your Profits
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View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.2%)
- BULLISH: Trading 27.1% below Wall St target ($410.62)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -10.7% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$338.98 -
$373.39
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$323.48
Resistance Level
$379.99
Current Trend
Support Break
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.34
Wall Street Target
$410.63
(+27.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-2.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
75.2%
Profit Margin
27.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
23.3 vs 26.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$311.16
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$299.65
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$288.56
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→26)
$323.88
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 23.3, Growth: 25.3%)
$635.04
(+97%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.4, Growth: 25.3%)
$608.02
(+88%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 25.3%)
$516.81
(+60%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (37x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 36.62 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.75
Bull Case
$557.61
(+54%)
Analyst growth 42.0%, PE expands to 40.3
Base Case
$506.92
(+40%)
Market implied 42.0%, PE stable at 36.6
Bear Case
$242.80
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 31.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 23.3 to 26.2
Stabilization Target:
$362.66
(+12.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 6:33 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:33 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:33 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AMAT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
9
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
John Boozman
SELL
2026-02-27
Judy Bruner
SELL
2500 shares
2026-02-25
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-02-24
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AMAT price and gamma walls.
