AMAT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AMAT - Applied Materials Inc
$322.32
-19.02 (-5.57%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 12, 2026
11d
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3 traders called AMAT this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AMAT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.7% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AMAT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.7% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$583.44
Based on 14.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$362.27
11.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AMAT is currently trading at $322.32, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $270.24 to $325.52. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 28.3) is in line with its historical norms (26.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMAT is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $311.07, while resistance sits at $344.60. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: AMAT has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMAT is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $311.07, while resistance sits at $344.60. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: AMAT has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$270.24 -
$325.52
Company Quality Score
66/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.2%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-5.6%)
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($317.61)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$270.24 -
$325.52
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$311.07
Resistance Level
$344.60
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
28.30
Wall Street Target
$317.61
(-7.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-3.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
13.3%
Profit Margin
24.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.7% premium
PE vs Historical
28.3 vs 26.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$350.56
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$360.02
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$369.74
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 28→26)
PE COMPRESSION
$340.95
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 28.3, Growth: 24.7%)
$662.58
(+94%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 24.7%)
$522.03
(+53%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 24.7%)
$443.73
(+30%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (39x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (28x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 38.93 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.65
Bull Case
$516.44
(+60%)
Analyst growth 39.4%, PE expands to 42.8
Base Case
$469.50
(+46%)
Market implied 39.4%, PE stable at 38.9
Bear Case
$228.99
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 33.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 1:48 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:48 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:48 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AMAT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2025-08-26
Ro Khanna
SELL
2025-08-19
Dan Newhouse
BUY
2025-08-18
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