AMBA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AMBA - Ambarella, Inc. Ordinary Shares
$50.85
2.20 (4.52%)
▲
5d:
-6.75%
30d:
-16.69%
90d:
-27.43%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 28, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
AMBA is down 5.5% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $75 2026-05-15 with 610 OI. Call ratio: 62% View Scanner →
Strength: 4.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AMBA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: AMBA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$24.87
Based on 8.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.44
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AMBA is currently trading at $50.85, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $50.37 to $63.30. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 72.5) compared to its historical average (99.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMBA is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $48.30, while resistance sits at $57.19. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: AMBA has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $89.58 (+84.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMBA is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $48.30, while resistance sits at $57.19. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: AMBA has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $89.58 (+84.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$50.37 -
$63.30
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
69.2%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AMBA? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.5%)
- BULLISH: Trading 84.1% below Wall St target ($89.58)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -6.7% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$50.37 -
$63.30
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$4.11
(8.1%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$48.30
Resistance Level
$57.19
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
72.55
Wall Street Target
$89.58
(+84.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
20.1%
Profit Margin
-19.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
72.6 vs 99.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$43.78
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$39.41
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$35.47
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 73→99)
$48.59
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 72.5, Growth: 12.5%)
$69.34
(+43%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.4, Growth: 12.5%)
$21.36
(-56%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 12.5%)
$18.16
(-63%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 72.5 to 99.4
Stabilization Target:
$66.66
(+37.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+37.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 1:55 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:55 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:55 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AMBA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
13
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Feng-Ming Wang
SELL
50000 shares
2026-03-02
Chi-Hong Ju
SELL
7728 shares
2026-01-05
Chi-Hong Ju
SELL
3765 shares
2025-12-30
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Advanced AMBA Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AMBA price and gamma walls.
