AMH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AMH - AMERICAN HOMES 4 RENT
$28.00
0.52 (1.89%)
▲
5d:
+1.67%
30d:
-6.67%
90d:
-12.2%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 07, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
AMH is down 3.6% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $35 2026-06-18 with 73 OI. Call ratio: 62% View Scanner →
Strength: 3.0/10
Get Alerted When AMH Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AMH shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: AMH shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$23.54
Based on 6.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$14.62
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AMH is currently trading at $28.00, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $28.02 to $30.32. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 40.0) is in line with its historical norms (38.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.4% annual earnings growth. This is a high bar to clear, indicating the stock may be priced for perfection.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMH is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $27.21. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AMH has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $34.48 (+25.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMH is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $27.21. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AMH has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $34.48 (+25.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$28.02 -
$30.32
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 25.5% below Wall St target ($34.48)
- BEARISH: Market expects 1.4% growth - appears too optimistic based on history
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$28.02 -
$30.32
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$27.22
Resistance Level
$28.73
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
40.05
Wall Street Target
$34.48
(+25.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
0.2%
Profit Margin
24.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.4% premium
PE vs Historical
40.1 vs 38.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$27.86
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$28.25
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$28.65
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 40→38)
PE COMPRESSION
$27.47
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 40.0, Growth: 9.1%)
$35.66
(+30%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.4, Growth: 9.1%)
$19.95
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 9.1%)
$16.96
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 23.20 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.18
Bull Case
$17.51
(-36%)
Analyst growth -41.8%, PE expands to 25.5
Base Case
$15.92
(-42%)
Market implied -41.8%, PE stable at 23.2
Bear Case
$18.62
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 11:45 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:45 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:45 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is AMH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
7
Buys
2
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
David Goldberg
BUY
2000 shares
2026-03-03
Douglas N Benham
BUY
1200 shares
2026-03-02
Douglas N Benham
BUY
1571 shares
2026-02-25
Top Rated REIT - Residential Stocks
Top-rated stocks in REIT - Residential by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
MAA
Mid-America Apartment Co… |
BUY
26 analysts |
$145 | 59 HOLD |
|
EQR
Equity Residential |
HOLD
26 analysts |
$70 | 54 HOLD |
|
ESS
Essex Property Trust Inc |
HOLD
27 analysts |
$279 | 57 HOLD |
|
INVH
Invitation Homes Inc |
HOLD
24 analysts |
$31 | 58 HOLD |
|
CPT
Camden Property Trust |
HOLD
25 analysts |
$115 | 58 HOLD |
