AMPY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AMPY - Amplify Energy Corp.
$5.23
0.13 (2.55%)
▲
5d:
-1.13%
30d:
-4.74%
90d:
-3.51%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 11, 2026
0d
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2 traders called AMPY this week
0% bullish • 2 bearish
0% bullish • 2 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AMPY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: AMPY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$14.57
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.04
42.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AMPY is currently trading at $5.23, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $5.40 to $6.17. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.7) compared to its historical average (11.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 20.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMPY is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $4.90, while resistance sits at $6.41.
Market Sentiment: AMPY has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $9.12 (+74.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMPY is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $4.90, while resistance sits at $6.41.
Market Sentiment: AMPY has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $9.12 (+74.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$5.40 -
$6.17
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 74.5% below Wall St target ($9.12)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$5.40 -
$6.17
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$4.90
Resistance Level
$6.41
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.68
Wall Street Target
$9.13
(+74.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-48.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-12.0%
Profit Margin
5.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-20.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.7 vs 11.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-20.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$4.71
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$4.24
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$3.81
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→11)
$7.58
(+45%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.40 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.25
Bull Case
$11.22
(+115%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 22.4
Base Case
$10.20
(+95%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 20.4
Bear Case
$3.47
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.7 to 11.3
Stabilization Target:
$10.40
(+98.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+98.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 16, 2026 2:21 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:21 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:21 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AMPY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Clint D Coghill
SELL
242489 shares
2026-03-17
Clint D Coghill
SELL
501279 shares
2026-03-16
Clint D Coghill
SELL
256232 shares
2026-03-13
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