AMRC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AMRC - Ameresco, Inc.
$24.67
-0.83 (-3.25%)
▼
5d:
-14.25%
30d:
-11.58%
90d:
-16.12%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AMRC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: AMRC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$74.70
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$46.39
46.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AMRC is currently trading at $24.67, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $25.20 to $30.24. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 15.1) compared to its historical average (23.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 13.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMRC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $24.03. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: AMRC has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $42.60 (+72.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMRC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $24.03. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: AMRC has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $42.60 (+72.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$25.20 -
$30.24
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading 72.7% below Wall St target ($42.60)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-14.3%) - monitor closely
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$25.20 -
$30.24
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$24.03
Resistance Level
$29.12
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.05
Wall Street Target
$42.60
(+72.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-51.7%
Profit Margin
2.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-13.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.1 vs 23.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-13.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$22.20
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$19.98
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$17.98
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→23)
$27.97
(+13%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 41.2%)
$103.08
(+318%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.0, Growth: 41.2%)
$69.40
(+181%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.8, Growth: 41.2%)
$58.99
(+139%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (32x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 32.12 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.83
Bull Case
$57.38
(+107%)
Analyst growth 95.7%, PE expands to 35.3
Base Case
$52.16
(+88%)
Market implied 95.7%, PE stable at 32.1
Bear Case
$18.13
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 27.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.0 to 23.4
Stabilization Target:
$38.36
(+55.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+55.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 7:26 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:26 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:26 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AMRC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
David J Corrsin
SELL
19 shares
2026-03-12
Louis P Maltezos
SELL
306 shares
2026-03-12
David J Corrsin
SELL
50 shares
2026-03-10
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