AMSF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AMSF - AMERISAFE, Inc.
$37.61
0.66 (1.79%)
▲
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 25, 2026
24d
Get Alerted When AMSF Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AMSF shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: AMSF shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$36.12
Based on -1.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.43
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AMSF is currently trading at $37.61, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $37.21 to $38.41. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.8) is in line with its historical norms (17.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMSF is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $36.23, while resistance sits at $38.78.
Market Sentiment: AMSF has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $47.00 (+27.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMSF is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $36.23, while resistance sits at $38.78.
Market Sentiment: AMSF has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $47.00 (+27.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$37.21 -
$38.41
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
62th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
53.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AMSF? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 62th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 27.2% below Wall St target ($47.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$37.21 -
$38.41
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$3.67
(9.8%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$36.23
Resistance Level
$38.78
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.80
Wall Street Target
$47.00
(+27.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-4.0%
Profit Margin
16.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.8 vs 17.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$36.43
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$35.92
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$35.42
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→18)
$36.91
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: -6.4%)
$40.25
(+9%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.8, Growth: -6.4%)
$30.32
(-18%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.3, Growth: -6.4%)
$25.77
(-30%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 13.99 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.60
Bull Case
$33.85
(-10%)
Analyst growth -15.4%, PE expands to 15.4
Base Case
$30.77
(-18%)
Market implied -15.4%, PE stable at 14.0
Bear Case
$24.73
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.8 to 17.5
Stabilization Target:
$38.50
(+4.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.2%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 10:00 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:00 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:00 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is AMSF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Anastasios Omiridis
SELL
1343 shares
2025-08-05
Top Rated Insurance - Specialty Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Insurance - Specialty by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
RYAN
Ryan Specialty Group Hol… |
BUY
13 analysts |
$64 | 45 HOLD |
|
AXS
AXIS Capital Holdings Ltd |
BUY
9 analysts |
$121 | 59 HOLD |
|
ESNT
Essent Group Ltd |
BUY
8 analysts |
$69 | 65 BUY |
|
NMIH
NMI Holdings Inc |
STRONG BUY
7 analysts |
$45 | 54 HOLD |
|
RDN
Radian Group Inc |
BUY
6 analysts |
$39 | 55 HOLD |
Advanced AMSF Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AMSF price and gamma walls.
