AMSF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AMSF - AMERISAFE, Inc.
$33.33
-0.43 (-1.27%)
▼
5d:
+1.49%
30d:
-0.86%
90d:
-13.14%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AMSF shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AMSF shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$43.39
Based on 3.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$26.94
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AMSF is currently trading at $33.33, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $32.31 to $35.44. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 15.0) compared to its historical average (16.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMSF is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $34.09. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AMSF has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Implied Volatility is high (100th percentile), indicating expensive options premiums. This environment often favors selling options or covered calls to generate income. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $42.33 (+27.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMSF is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $34.09. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AMSF has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Implied Volatility is high (100th percentile), indicating expensive options premiums. This environment often favors selling options or covered calls to generate income. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $42.33 (+27.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$32.31 -
$35.44
Company Quality Score
65/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
100th percentile
(EVENT RISK)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
67.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Options expensive (IV 100th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 27.0% below Wall St target ($42.33)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$32.31 -
$35.44
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$3.94
(11.8%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$32.16
Resistance Level
$34.09
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.98
Wall Street Target
$42.33
(+27.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-19.2%
Profit Margin
14.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.0 vs 16.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$32.16
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$31.04
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$29.95
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→17)
$33.39
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 2.3%)
$53.24
(+60%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.0, Growth: 2.3%)
$35.68
(+7%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.7, Growth: 2.3%)
$30.33
(-9%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 13.07 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.47
Bull Case
$32.00
(-3%)
Analyst growth -9.9%, PE expands to 14.4
Base Case
$29.09
(-12%)
Market implied -9.9%, PE stable at 13.1
Bear Case
$21.96
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.0 to 16.7
Stabilization Target:
$37.16
(+11.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 10:09 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:09 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:09 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AMSF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Anastasios Omiridis
SELL
1247 shares
2025-11-20
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Advanced AMSF Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AMSF price and gamma walls.
