APG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
APG - APi Group Corporation
$39.11
-0.80 (-2.00%)
▼
5d:
-5.67%
30d:
-12.03%
90d:
-1.16%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 07, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
APG is down 3.7% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $39 2026-04-17 with 58 OI. Call ratio: 100% View Scanner →
Strength: 6.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: APG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: APG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$92.71
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$57.57
32.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: APG is currently trading at $39.11, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $40.53 to $44.06. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 20.5) compared to its historical average (30.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 11.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 33.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, APG is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $38.93. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: APG has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $52.00 (+33.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, APG is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $38.93. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: APG has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $52.00 (+33.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$40.53 -
$44.06
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding APG? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 33.0% below Wall St target ($52.00)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-5.7%) - monitor closely
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$40.53 -
$44.06
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$38.93
Resistance Level
$42.81
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.54
Wall Street Target
$52.00
(+33.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
33.3%
Profit Margin
3.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-11.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
20.5 vs 30.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-11.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$35.20
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$31.68
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$28.51
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→30)
$41.65
(+7%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 48.0%)
$138.10
(+253%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.5, Growth: 48.0%)
$126.89
(+224%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.5, Growth: 48.0%)
$107.86
(+176%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 20.5 to 30.0
Stabilization Target:
$57.13
(+46.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+46.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 5:40 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:40 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:40 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is APG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
7
Buys
13
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
James E Lillie
SELL
22009 shares
2026-03-04
Ian G H Ashken
SELL
72546 shares
2026-03-04
James E Lillie
SELL
83629 shares
2026-03-04
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Advanced APG Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's APG price and gamma walls.
