APPF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
APPF - AppFolio, Inc. Class A
$189.88
-17.22 (-8.31%)
▼
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Mar 02, 2026
29d
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1 traders called APPF this week
0% bullish • 1 bearish
0% bullish • 1 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: APPF is down 13.5% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: APPF is down 13.5% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$312.85
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$194.25
2.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: APPF is currently trading at $189.88, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $213.27 to $234.54. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 32.2) is in line with its historical norms (35.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 3.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, APPF is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $186.45. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 8.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $311.83 (+50.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, APPF is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $186.45. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 8.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $311.83 (+50.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$213.27 -
$234.54
Company Quality Score
37/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding APPF? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-8.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading 50.6% below Wall St target ($311.83)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -13.5% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$213.27 -
$234.54
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$186.45
Resistance Level
$227.29
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
32.16
Wall Street Target
$311.83
(+50.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
3.3%
Profit Margin
22.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
32.2 vs 35.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$200.68
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$194.46
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$188.43
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 32→35)
$207.41
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 32.2, Growth: 24.9%)
$403.55
(+95%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 24.9%)
$279.82
(+35%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 24.9%)
$237.85
(+15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (39x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (32x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 39.07 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.58
Bull Case
$276.74
(+46%)
Analyst growth 15.4%, PE expands to 43.0
Base Case
$251.58
(+33%)
Market implied 15.4%, PE stable at 39.1
Bear Case
$148.24
(-22%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 33.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 32.2 to 35.4
Stabilization Target:
$227.96
(+10.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.1%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 12:40 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:40 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:40 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is APPF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
19
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Matthew S Mazza
SELL
1636 shares
2025-09-15
Matthew S Mazza
SELL
1364 shares
2025-09-11
William Shane Trigg
SELL
4000 shares
2025-09-10
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Advanced APPF Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's APPF price and gamma walls.
