Is APPF stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, APPF is currently a HOLD with low confidence. 📊 HOLD: APPF shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of APPF stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for APPF to be between $162.09 and $183.37. The current price is $155.88.

What is the analyst price target for APPF?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for APPF is $263.86. This implies a potential upside of 69.5% from current levels.

APPF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

APPF - AppFolio, Inc. Class A

SERVICES-PREPACKAGED SOFTWARE

$155.89

0.20 (0.13%) ▲

5d: -6.64%

30d: -12.31%

90d: -34.31%

HOLD

LOW Confidence

Protect Your APPF Gains

Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Apr 23, 2026 23d

Smart Money Accumulation

APPF is down 6.3% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $165 2026-05-15 with 27 OI. Call ratio: 71% View Scanner →

Strength: 5.2/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: APPF shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 21.3%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$358.25

Based on 12.7% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$222.44

29.9% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: APPF is currently trading at $155.88, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $162.09 to $183.37. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 19.6) compared to its historical average (28.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 12.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, APPF is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $154.16. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $263.86 (+69.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Fair Price Range $162.09 - $183.37

Company Quality Score 54/100 (HOLD)

Options IV Signal 43th percentile (NORMAL)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 77.7%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 43th percentile)
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 69.5% below Wall St target ($263.86)
CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -6.6% 5-day decline

Fair Price Analysis

30-Day Fair Range $162.09 - $183.37

Current vs Fair Value OVERSOLD

Expected Move (7 Days) ±$11.83 (7.6%)

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $154.16

Resistance Level $177.37

Current Trend Strong Downtrend

Technical data as of Mar 27, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 19.56

Wall Street Target $263.86 (+69.5%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 21.9%

Earnings Growth (YoY) -60.6%

Profit Margin 14.8%

Valuation Discount vs History -12.2% cheaper

PE vs Historical 19.6 vs 28.9 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -12.2% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $140.11 (-10%)

2-Year Target $126.10 (-19%)

3-Year Target $113.49 (-27%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 20→29) $167.66 (+8%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 22.4, Growth: 21.3%) $318.51 (+105%)

Base: (SPY PE: 19.6, Growth: 21.3%) $278.17 (+79%)

Bear: (PE: 16.6, Growth: 21.3%) $236.45 (+52%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (43x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 42.70 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.89

Bull Case $365.42 (+119%)

Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 47.0

Base Case $332.20 (+99%)

Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 42.7

Bear Case $112.95 (-32%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 36.3

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.6 to 28.9

Stabilization Target: $229.98 (+47.7%)

PE Expansion Potential: +47.7%

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Last updated: March 30, 2026 10:14 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:14 AM

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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

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Net

INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr. SELL 2026-02-18

William Shane Trigg SELL 6963 shares 2026-02-17

Timothy Mathias Eaton SELL 517 shares 2025-11-24

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Advanced APPF Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's APPF price and gamma walls.

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