APPF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
APPF - AppFolio, Inc. Class A
$150.24
-0.29 (-0.19%)
▼
5d:
-11.73%
30d:
-2.98%
90d:
-14.6%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 23, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
APPF is down 11.7% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $165 2026-06-18 with 115 OI. Call ratio: 63% View Scanner →
Strength: 7.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: APPF is down 11.7% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: APPF is down 11.7% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$367.12
Based on 12.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$227.95
34.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: APPF is currently trading at $150.24, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $151.28 to $168.27. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 18.3) compared to its historical average (26.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 11.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 37.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, APPF is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $145.14, while resistance sits at $177.82.
Market Sentiment: APPF has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $228.36 (+52.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, APPF is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $145.14, while resistance sits at $177.82.
Market Sentiment: APPF has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $228.36 (+52.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$151.28 -
$168.27
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding APPF? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 52.0% below Wall St target ($228.36)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -11.7% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$151.28 -
$168.27
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$10.13
(6.7%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$145.14
Resistance Level
$177.82
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.27
Wall Street Target
$228.36
(+52.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
20.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
37.2%
Profit Margin
15.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-11.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.3 vs 26.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-11.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$135.22
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$121.69
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$109.52
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→26)
$157.10
(+5%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 20.9%)
$320.08
(+113%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.3, Growth: 20.9%)
$265.27
(+77%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.5, Growth: 20.9%)
$225.48
(+50%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (36x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 36.02 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.20
Bull Case
$325.93
(+117%)
Analyst growth 95.8%, PE expands to 39.6
Base Case
$296.30
(+97%)
Market implied 95.8%, PE stable at 36.0
Bear Case
$102.88
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 30.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.3 to 26.2
Stabilization Target:
$215.50
(+43.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+43.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 6:54 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:54 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:54 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is APPF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
SELL
2026-02-18
William Shane Trigg
SELL
6963 shares
2026-02-17
Timothy Mathias Eaton
SELL
517 shares
2025-11-24
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Advanced APPF Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's APPF price and gamma walls.
