AR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AR - ANTERO RESOURCES CORPORATION
$38.24
1.16 (3.13%)
▲
5d:
+6.4%
30d:
+2.0%
90d:
+10.01%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
AR is up 6.4% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $33 2026-06-18 with 49,823 OI. Put ratio: 86% View Scanner →
Strength: 6.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: AR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$57.08
Based on 5.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$35.44
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AR is currently trading at $38.24, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $36.57 to $39.11. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.2) compared to its historical average (9.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 160.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AR is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $35.63, while resistance sits at $39.80. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: AR has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $50.10 (+31.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AR is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $35.63, while resistance sits at $39.80. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: AR has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $50.10 (+31.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$36.57 -
$39.11
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AR? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading 31.0% below Wall St target ($50.10)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$36.57 -
$39.11
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$35.63
Resistance Level
$39.80
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.15
Wall Street Target
$50.10
(+31.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
34.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
160.6%
Profit Margin
17.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.2 vs 9.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$36.52
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$34.88
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$33.31
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$38.41
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 6.6%)
$125.25
(+228%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.2, Growth: 6.6%)
$46.26
(+21%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.9, Growth: 6.6%)
$39.32
(+3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.00 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.09
Bull Case
$61.93
(+62%)
Analyst growth 51.8%, PE expands to 13.2
Base Case
$56.30
(+47%)
Market implied 51.8%, PE stable at 12.0
Bear Case
$25.21
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.2 to 9.4
Stabilization Target:
$44.10
(+15.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+15.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 8:21 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:21 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:21 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Benjamin A Hardesty
SELL
12000 shares
2026-03-19
Yvette K Schultz
SELL
15000 shares
2026-03-09
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Advanced AR Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AR price and gamma walls.
