ARI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ARI - APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE FINANCE, INC.
$10.54
0.11 (1.05%)
▲
5d:
+1.44%
30d:
-0.57%
90d:
+5.82%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 23, 2026
22d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ARI shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ARI shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$12.51
Based on 2.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$7.76
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARI is currently trading at $10.54, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.36 to $10.65. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.0) is in line with its historical norms (10.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARI is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $10.71. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ARI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.62 (+10.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARI is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $10.71. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ARI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.62 (+10.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$10.36 -
$10.65
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($11.62)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$10.36 -
$10.65
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.06
Resistance Level
$10.71
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.04
Wall Street Target
$11.63
(+10.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-31.0%
Profit Margin
47.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.0 vs 10.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.43
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$10.33
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$10.23
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
$10.49
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 1.9%)
$24.86
(+136%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.0, Growth: 1.9%)
$11.17
(+6%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.5, Growth: 1.9%)
$9.49
(-10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.42 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.81
Bull Case
$14.34
(+38%)
Analyst growth 29.6%, PE expands to 13.7
Base Case
$13.04
(+26%)
Market implied 29.6%, PE stable at 12.4
Bear Case
$6.84
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.0 to 10.3
Stabilization Target:
$10.82
(+2.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 4:49 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:49 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:49 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ARI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Stuart Rothstein
SELL
52072 shares
2025-12-15
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