ARM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ARM - Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares
$315.28
-22.19 (-6.58%)
▼
5d:
-9.33%
30d:
-21.71%
90d:
+103.31%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
25d
NEW THESIS The Datacenter CPU Renaissance (2026)
See why ARM plays a critical role in the upcoming CPU supercycle alongside GPUs. Read Deep Dive →
Smart Money Accumulation
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Strength: 10.0/10
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1 traders called ARM this week
0% bullish • 1 bearish
0% bullish • 1 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ARM trades at premium valuation expecting 17.1% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: ARM trades at premium valuation expecting 17.1% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$96.51
Based on 12.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$59.92
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARM is currently trading at $315.28, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $325.62 to $400.85. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 147.4) compared to its historical average (91.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 17.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARM is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $303.67, while resistance sits at $452.70. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 6.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARM is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $303.67, while resistance sits at $452.70. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 6.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$325.62 -
$400.85
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
66.7%
Protect Your Profits
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View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-6.6%)
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($295.95)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 17.1% growth which is achievable
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -9.3% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$325.62 -
$400.85
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$303.67
Resistance Level
$452.70
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
147.38
Wall Street Target
$295.95
(-6.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
20.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
47.9%
Profit Margin
18.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+17.1% premium
PE vs Historical
147.4 vs 91.9
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+17.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$369.19
(+17%)
2-Year Target
$432.32
(+37%)
3-Year Target
$506.25
(+61%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 147→92)
PE COMPRESSION
$315.67
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 147.4, Growth: 21.4%)
$563.62
(+79%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 21.4%)
$83.29
(-74%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 21.4%)
$70.80
(-78%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (154x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (147x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 153.85 | Forward EPS (Implied): $2.05
Bull Case
$380.70
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 161.5
Base Case
$315.28
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 153.9
Bear Case
$241.19
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 138.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 5:39 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:39 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:39 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ARM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Jason Child
SELL
21280 shares
2026-04-22
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SELL
9299 shares
2026-04-14
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7986 shares
2026-03-26
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