ASLE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ASLE - AerSale Corporation Common Stock
$6.17
-0.06 (-0.96%)
▼
5d:
-0.48%
30d:
-18.49%
90d:
-13.22%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
ASLE is down 14.9% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $5 2026-04-17 with 27 OI. Call ratio: 100% View Scanner →
Strength: 10.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ASLE appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -13.0% annual earnings decline despite 129% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ASLE appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -13.0% annual earnings decline despite 129% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$18.33
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.38
45.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ASLE is currently trading at $6.17, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $6.04 to $7.28. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.8) compared to its historical average (10.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 13.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 128.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASLE is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $5.93, while resistance sits at $6.38.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (24th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.00 (+29.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASLE is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $5.93, while resistance sits at $6.38.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (24th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.00 (+29.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$6.04 -
$7.28
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
24th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 24th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 29.7% below Wall St target ($8.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$6.04 -
$7.28
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.52
(8.4%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$5.93
Resistance Level
$6.38
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.82
Wall Street Target
$8.00
(+29.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-4.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
128.9%
Profit Margin
2.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-13.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.8 vs 10.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-13.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$5.55
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$5.00
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$4.50
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→10)
$6.86
(+11%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.6, Growth: 36.1%)
$46.92
(+661%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.8, Growth: 36.1%)
$15.55
(+152%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.8, Growth: 36.1%)
$13.22
(+114%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (34x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 34.22 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.18
Bull Case
$13.55
(+116%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 37.6
Base Case
$12.32
(+96%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 34.2
Bear Case
$4.19
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 29.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.8 to 10.4
Stabilization Target:
$9.41
(+52.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+52.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 04, 2026 7:53 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:53 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:53 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ASLE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Judith Ann Fedder
BUY
1000 shares
2026-03-11
Nicolas Finazzo
BUY
6352 shares
2025-11-21
Nicolas Finazzo
BUY
1707 shares
2025-11-20
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Advanced ASLE Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ASLE price and gamma walls.
