Is ASLE stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, ASLE is currently a HOLD with moderate confidence. 📊 HOLD: ASLE shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of ASLE stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for ASLE to be between $6.15 and $7.46. The current price is $6.04.

What is the analyst price target for ASLE?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for ASLE is $8.00. This implies a potential upside of 32.5% from current levels.

ASLE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

ASLE - AerSale Corporation Common Stock

WHOLESALE-MACHINERY, EQUIPMENT & SUPPLIES

$6.04

-0.11 (-1.79%) ▼

5d: -3.97%

30d: -22.56%

90d: -15.05%

HOLD

MODERATE Confidence

Protect Your ASLE Gains

Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: May 06, 2026

Smart Money Accumulation

ASLE is down 14.9% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $5 2026-04-17 with 27 OI. Call ratio: 100% View Scanner →

Strength: 10.0/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ASLE shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$18.50

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$11.49

47.4% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.5x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: ASLE is currently trading at $6.04, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $6.15 to $7.46. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.7) compared to its historical average (10.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 14.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 128.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, ASLE is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $6.06. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: ASLE has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.00 (+32.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Fair Price Range $6.15 - $7.46

Company Quality Score 48/100 (HOLD)

Options IV Signal 31th percentile (NORMAL)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 59.6%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 31th percentile)
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 32.5% below Wall St target ($8.00)

Fair Price Analysis

30-Day Fair Range $6.15 - $7.46

Current vs Fair Value OVERSOLD

Expected Move (7 Days) ±$0.51 (8.4%)

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $6.06

Resistance Level $6.40

Current Trend Uptrend

Technical data as of Mar 30, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 6.67

Wall Street Target $8.00 (+32.5%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) -4.0%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 128.9%

Profit Margin 2.6%

Valuation Discount vs History -14.0% cheaper

PE vs Historical 6.7 vs 10.5 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -14.0% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $5.44 (-10%)

2-Year Target $4.89 (-19%)

3-Year Target $4.40 (-27%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 7→11) $6.93 (+15%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 22.4, Growth: 36.1%) $50.98 (+744%)

Base: (SPY PE: 6.7, Growth: 36.1%) $15.22 (+152%)

Bear: (PE: 5.7, Growth: 36.1%) $12.94 (+114%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (34x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 34.22 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.18

Bull Case $13.55 (+116%)

Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 37.6

Base Case $12.32 (+96%)

Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 34.2

Bear Case $4.19 (-33%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 29.1

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.7 to 10.5

Stabilization Target: $9.50 (+57.3%)

PE Expansion Potential: +57.3%

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Last updated: March 30, 2026 10:18 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:18 PM

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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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INSIDERS BUYING

Recent Transactions

Judith Ann Fedder BUY 1000 shares 2026-03-11

Nicolas Finazzo BUY 6352 shares 2025-11-21

Nicolas Finazzo BUY 1707 shares 2025-11-20

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Advanced ASLE Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ASLE price and gamma walls.

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