ASO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ASO - Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc.
$55.01
-0.35 (-0.63%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Mar 19, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
ASO is down 3.2% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $57.5 2026-03-20 with 664 OI. Call ratio: 90% View Scanner →
Strength: 5.6/10
Get Alerted When ASO Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ASO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ASO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$73.50
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$45.64
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ASO is currently trading at $55.01, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $51.78 to $57.47. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.6) is in line with its historical norms (8.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASO is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $53.91. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASO is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $53.91. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$51.78 -
$57.47
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($59.94)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$51.78 -
$57.47
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$53.91
Resistance Level
$59.38
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.55
Wall Street Target
$59.94
(+8.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
14.1%
Profit Margin
6.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.6% premium
PE vs Historical
8.6 vs 8.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$56.25
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$57.15
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$58.06
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$55.01
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 10.0%)
$192.41
(+248%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.5, Growth: 10.0%)
$73.76
(+33%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.3, Growth: 10.0%)
$62.69
(+13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.13 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.44
Bull Case
$72.19
(+31%)
Analyst growth 19.0%, PE expands to 11.2
Base Case
$65.63
(+19%)
Market implied 19.0%, PE stable at 10.1
Bear Case
$37.49
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 12:55 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:55 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:55 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is ASO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Specialty Retail Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Specialty Retail by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
TSCO
Tractor Supply Company |
HOLD
33 analysts |
$61 | 63 BUY |
|
ULTA
Ulta Beauty Inc |
HOLD
28 analysts |
$666 | 55 HOLD |
|
BBY
Best Buy Co. Inc |
HOLD
29 analysts |
$82 | 53 HOLD |
|
MNSO
Miniso Group Holding Ltd |
STRONG BUY
18 analysts |
$27 | 57 HOLD |
|
DKS
Dick’s Sporting Goods Inc |
HOLD
26 analysts |
$238 | 56 HOLD |
Advanced ASO Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ASO price and gamma walls.
