ASO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ASO - Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc.
$54.27
0.76 (1.42%)
▲
5d:
+3.06%
30d:
-9.75%
90d:
+6.62%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Mar 31, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
ASO is down 6.8% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $60 2026-05-15 with 7 OI. Call ratio: 88% View Scanner →
Strength: 7.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ASO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ASO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$79.27
Based on 7.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$49.22
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ASO is currently trading at $54.27, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $53.38 to $60.46. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.3) is in line with its historical norms (8.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 4.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASO is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $54.91. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ASO has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASO is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $54.91. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ASO has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$53.38 -
$60.46
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ASO? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($58.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$53.38 -
$60.46
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$49.58
Resistance Level
$54.91
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.32
Wall Street Target
$58.00
(+6.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
4.5%
Profit Margin
6.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.3 vs 8.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$53.94
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$53.62
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$53.30
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$54.43
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 10.9%)
$198.58
(+266%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.3, Growth: 10.9%)
$73.96
(+36%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.1, Growth: 10.9%)
$62.86
(+16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.38 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.54
Bull Case
$67.29
(+28%)
Analyst growth 17.7%, PE expands to 10.3
Base Case
$61.17
(+16%)
Market implied 17.7%, PE stable at 9.4
Bear Case
$35.35
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.3 to 8.5
Stabilization Target:
$55.42
(+2.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 3:25 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:25 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:25 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ASO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Brian T Marley
SELL
3500 shares
2025-12-15
Brian T Marley
SELL
17071 shares
2025-12-12
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Advanced ASO Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ASO price and gamma walls.
