ASO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ASO - Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc.
$57.69
1.24 (2.20%)
▲
5d:
+8.18%
30d:
-3.5%
90d:
+16.4%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Mar 31, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
ASO is down 6.8% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $60 2026-05-15 with 7 OI. Call ratio: 88% View Scanner →
Strength: 7.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ASO shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ASO shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$79.27
Based on 7.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$49.22
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ASO is currently trading at $57.69, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $53.28 to $60.29. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.8) is in line with its historical norms (8.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASO is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $58.27. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ASO has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASO is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $58.27. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ASO has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$53.28 -
$60.29
Company Quality Score
65/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($58.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$53.28 -
$60.29
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$50.54
Resistance Level
$58.27
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.85
Wall Street Target
$58.00
(+0.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
4.5%
Profit Margin
6.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.4% premium
PE vs Historical
8.9 vs 8.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$58.50
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$59.32
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$60.15
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$57.78
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 10.9%)
$198.58
(+244%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.8, Growth: 10.9%)
$78.62
(+36%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.5, Growth: 10.9%)
$66.82
(+16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.38 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.54
Bull Case
$67.29
(+28%)
Analyst growth 17.7%, PE expands to 10.3
Base Case
$61.17
(+16%)
Market implied 17.7%, PE stable at 9.4
Bear Case
$35.35
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 5:31 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:31 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:31 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ASO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Brian T Marley
SELL
3500 shares
2025-12-15
Brian T Marley
SELL
17071 shares
2025-12-12
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Advanced ASO Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ASO price and gamma walls.
