AVNW Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AVNW - Aviat Networks, Inc.
$21.81
0.02 (0.09%)
▲
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 03, 2026
2d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AVNW shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly high pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AVNW shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly high pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$45.17
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$28.04
22.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AVNW is currently trading at $21.81, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.27 to $21.97. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.0) is in line with its historical norms (7.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 245.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVNW is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $20.93, while resistance sits at $22.74.
Market Sentiment: AVNW has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $35.14 (+61.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVNW is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $20.93, while resistance sits at $22.74.
Market Sentiment: AVNW has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $35.14 (+61.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$21.27 -
$21.97
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
49th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
75.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 49th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 61.3% below Wall St target ($35.14)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$21.27 -
$21.97
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$3.18
(14.6%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$20.93
Resistance Level
$22.74
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.05
Wall Street Target
$35.14
(+61.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
245.2%
Profit Margin
2.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.1 vs 7.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$21.35
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$20.93
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$20.51
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→8)
$21.83
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 25.5%)
$136.17
(+525%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.0, Growth: 25.5%)
$43.03
(+98%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.0, Growth: 25.5%)
$36.57
(+68%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.57 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.05
Bull Case
$47.52
(+118%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 22.6
Base Case
$43.20
(+98%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 20.6
Bear Case
$14.69
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.0 to 7.5
Stabilization Target:
$23.19
(+6.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.4%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 11:21 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:21 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:21 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AVNW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Gary Croke
SELL
6742 shares
2025-09-02
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AVNW price and gamma walls.
