AZN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AZN - AstraZeneca PLC
$195.15
11.29 (6.14%)
▲
5d:
+5.1%
30d:
+9.97%
90d:
-2.78%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
30d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AZN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 6.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AZN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 6.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$337.67
Based on 9.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$209.67
6.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AZN is currently trading at $195.15, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $177.79 to $187.61. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 22.4) compared to its historical average (27.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 5.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AZN is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $196.41. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 6.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: AZN has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $224.29 (+14.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AZN is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $196.41. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 6.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: AZN has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $224.29 (+14.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$177.79 -
$187.61
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
64.3%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+6.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($224.29)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$177.79 -
$187.61
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$173.66
Resistance Level
$196.41
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.37
Wall Street Target
$224.29
(+14.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
5.3%
Profit Margin
17.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
22.4 vs 27.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$183.05
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$171.70
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$161.06
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→27)
$195.10
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 14.4%)
$291.85
(+50%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 14.4%)
$284.14
(+46%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 14.4%)
$241.52
(+24%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (29x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 29.21 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.64
Bull Case
$280.32
(+44%)
Analyst growth 31.4%, PE expands to 32.1
Base Case
$254.84
(+31%)
Market implied 31.4%, PE stable at 29.2
Bear Case
$131.91
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 22.4 to 27.1
Stabilization Target:
$236.40
(+21.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+21.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 9:11 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:11 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:11 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AZN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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