BGS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BGS - B&G Foods, Inc.
$4.17
-0.10 (-2.34%)
▼
5d:
-22.06%
30d:
-21.62%
90d:
-20.27%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 12, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: BGS is down 22.1% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: BGS is down 22.1% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$7.69
Based on 5.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.78
12.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BGS is currently trading at $4.17, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.89 to $5.60. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.2) compared to its historical average (8.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BGS is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $4.15. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $5.20 (+24.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BGS is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $4.15. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $5.20 (+24.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$4.89 -
$5.60
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 24.7% below Wall St target ($5.20)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -22.1% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$4.89 -
$5.60
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$4.15
Resistance Level
$5.57
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.19
Wall Street Target
$5.20
(+24.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-3.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-65.9%
Profit Margin
-4.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.2 vs 8.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$3.75
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$3.38
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$3.04
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→9)
$4.22
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 7.7%)
$18.58
(+346%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.2, Growth: 7.7%)
$5.21
(+25%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.3, Growth: 7.7%)
$4.43
(+6%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.2 to 8.6
Stabilization Target:
$5.79
(+38.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+38.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 7:40 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:40 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:40 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BGS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Andrew D Vogel
SELL
20000 shares
2026-03-13
David L Wenner
SELL
19500 shares
2026-03-13
Martin C Schoch
SELL
11321 shares
2026-03-12
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