BIRK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BIRK - Birkenstock Holding plc
$35.71
-0.12 (-0.33%)
ā¼
5d:
-1.81%
30d:
-13.62%
90d:
-13.43%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 21, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
ā BUY SIGNAL: BIRK appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -5.4% annual earnings decline despite 152% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
ā BUY SIGNAL: BIRK appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -5.4% annual earnings decline despite 152% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$73.50
Based on 11.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$45.64
21.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BIRK is currently trading at $35.71, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $35.15 to $40.03. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 14.6) compared to its historical average (17.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 152.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BIRK is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $33.06, while resistance sits at $37.58.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $57.20 (+60.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BIRK is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $33.06, while resistance sits at $37.58.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $57.20 (+60.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$35.15 -
$40.03
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 60.2% below Wall St target ($57.20)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$35.15 -
$40.03
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$33.06
Resistance Level
$37.58
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.57
Wall Street Target
$57.20
(+60.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
152.1%
Profit Margin
17.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.6 vs 17.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$33.78
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$31.96
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$30.23
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15ā17)
$35.69
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 19.8%)
$94.24
(+164%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.6, Growth: 19.8%)
$61.44
(+72%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.4, Growth: 19.8%)
$52.22
(+46%)
š
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 14.31 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.33
Bull Case
$38.58
(+9%)
Analyst growth 5.2%, PE expands to 15.7
Base Case
$35.07
(-1%)
Market implied 5.2%, PE stable at 14.3
Bear Case
$22.67
(-36%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.6 to 17.2
Stabilization Target:
$42.16
(+18.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+18.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 4:27 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:27 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:27 AM
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