BIRK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BIRK - Birkenstock Holding plc
$37.76
0.04 (0.11%)
ā²
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 12, 2026
10d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
š HOLD: BIRK shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
š HOLD: BIRK shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$77.20
Based on 11.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$47.94
21.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BIRK is currently trading at $37.76, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $38.87 to $42.94. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 15.7) compared to its historical average (18.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 82.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BIRK is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $36.78. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: BIRK has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $58.54 (+55.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BIRK is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $36.78. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: BIRK has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $58.54 (+55.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$38.87 -
$42.94
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
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View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 55.0% below Wall St target ($58.54)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$38.87 -
$42.94
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$36.78
Resistance Level
$40.93
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.66
Wall Street Target
$58.54
(+55.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
82.7%
Profit Margin
16.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.7 vs 18.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$35.53
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$33.44
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$31.46
(-17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16ā19)
$37.78
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 18.7%)
$89.89
(+138%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.7, Growth: 18.7%)
$63.11
(+67%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.3, Growth: 18.7%)
$53.64
(+42%)
š
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.70 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.25
Bull Case
$44.53
(+18%)
Analyst growth 7.7%, PE expands to 18.4
Base Case
$40.48
(+7%)
Market implied 7.7%, PE stable at 16.7
Bear Case
$25.55
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
š”
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.7 to 18.8
Stabilization Target:
$45.35
(+20.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+20.1%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 11:34 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:34 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:34 AM
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's BIRK price and gamma walls.
