BLD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BLD - TopBuild Corp. Common Stock
$468.05
-12.04 (-2.51%)
▼
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 24, 2026
23d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: BLD shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: BLD shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$562.71
Based on 4.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$349.40
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BLD is currently trading at $468.05, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $432.37 to $488.21. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 22.9) is in line with its historical norms (21.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.6% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BLD is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $461.05. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (6th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BLD is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $461.05. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (6th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$432.37 -
$488.21
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
6th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
76.5%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 6th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($491.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.6% growth with 1.4% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$432.37 -
$488.21
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$23.95
(5.1%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$461.05
Resistance Level
$509.36
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.92
Wall Street Target
$491.00
(+2.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-10.8%
Profit Margin
10.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.6% premium
PE vs Historical
22.9 vs 21.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$492.57
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$505.38
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$518.52
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→21)
PE COMPRESSION
$479.65
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.9, Growth: 5.7%)
$566.37
(+18%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 5.7%)
$551.09
(+15%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 5.7%)
$468.43
(-2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.50 | Current EPS (TTM): $19.68
Bull Case
$564.65
(+21%)
Analyst growth 6.4%, PE expands to 27.0
Base Case
$513.31
(+10%)
Market implied 6.4%, PE stable at 24.5
Bear Case
$327.92
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 10:04 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:04 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:04 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BLD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Robert M Kuhns
SELL
1350 shares
2025-08-22
Robert M Kuhns
SELL
2000 shares
2025-08-08
Jeff M Krestancic
SELL
373 shares
2025-08-07
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Advanced BLD Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's BLD price and gamma walls.
