BLD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BLD - TopBuild Corp. Common Stock
$334.11
-14.43 (-4.14%)
▼
5d:
-3.71%
30d:
-25.47%
90d:
-22.65%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BLD shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 8.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BLD shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 8.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$719.63
Based on 9.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$446.83
25.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BLD is currently trading at $334.11, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $344.00 to $463.40. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 16.4) compared to its historical average (21.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BLD is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $331.33. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $498.07 (+42.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BLD is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $331.33. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $498.07 (+42.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$344.00 -
$463.40
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading 42.9% below Wall St target ($498.07)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$344.00 -
$463.40
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$18.70
(5.6%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$331.33
Resistance Level
$375.00
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.37
Wall Street Target
$498.07
(+42.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-27.1%
Profit Margin
9.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.4 vs 21.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$319.96
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$293.72
(-16%)
3-Year Target
$269.64
(-23%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→21)
$349.28
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 15.7%)
$738.91
(+112%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.4, Growth: 15.7%)
$539.86
(+55%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.9, Growth: 15.7%)
$458.88
(+32%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.35 | Current EPS (TTM): $18.28
Bull Case
$429.88
(+24%)
Analyst growth 16.5%, PE expands to 20.2
Base Case
$390.80
(+13%)
Market implied 16.5%, PE stable at 18.4
Bear Case
$228.10
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.4 to 21.2
Stabilization Target:
$451.49
(+29.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+29.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 2:52 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:52 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:52 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is BLD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Luis Francisco Machado
SELL
1000 shares
2025-11-26
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