BXMT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BXMT - Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (NEW)
$19.56
0.31 (1.61%)
▲
5d:
+2.09%
30d:
+2.25%
90d:
+5.73%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: February 2, 2026
Earnings: Feb 11, 2026
7d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BXMT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BXMT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$38.21
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$23.73
17.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BXMT is currently trading at $19.56, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $19.12 to $19.60. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.7) is in line with its historical norms (13.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BXMT is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $19.67. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: BXMT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BXMT is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $19.67. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: BXMT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$19.12 -
$19.60
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($20.94)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$19.12 -
$19.60
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$18.73
Resistance Level
$19.67
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.66
Wall Street Target
$20.94
(+7.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
145.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-71.1%
Profit Margin
27.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.7 vs 13.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$19.54
(0%)
2-Year Target
$19.52
(0%)
3-Year Target
$19.50
(0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→14)
$19.57
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 69.2%)
$107.81
(+451%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.7, Growth: 69.2%)
$66.02
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.6, Growth: 69.2%)
$56.11
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (31x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 31.05 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.62
Bull Case
$42.35
(+117%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 34.2
Base Case
$38.50
(+97%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 31.1
Bear Case
$13.09
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 26.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.7 to 13.7
Stabilization Target:
$19.62
(+0.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.3%
Last updated: February 03, 2026 4:14 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:14 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:14 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is BXMT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Anthony F Marone Jr
SELL
1006 shares
2025-09-17
Katharine A Keenan
SELL
4593 shares
2025-09-17
Marcin Urbaszek
SELL
398 shares
2025-09-17
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