BXMT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BXMT - Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (NEW)
$19.02
-0.25 (-1.30%)
▼
5d:
+2.48%
30d:
-3.21%
90d:
-3.74%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
28d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: BXMT trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -7.8% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: BXMT trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -7.8% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$42.50
Based on 11.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$26.39
27.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BXMT is currently trading at $19.02, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $18.75 to $19.45. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.5) compared to its historical average (12.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 9.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BXMT is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $19.43. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: BXMT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.29 (+10.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BXMT is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $19.43. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: BXMT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.29 (+10.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$18.75 -
$19.45
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($21.29)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$18.75 -
$19.45
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$18.19
Resistance Level
$19.43
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.48
Wall Street Target
$21.29
(+10.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
49.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
9.7%
Profit Margin
24.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.5 vs 12.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$17.77
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$16.38
(-15%)
3-Year Target
$15.10
(-22%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→12)
$19.27
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 19.4%)
$77.35
(+301%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.5, Growth: 19.4%)
$32.82
(+70%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.1, Growth: 19.4%)
$27.90
(+45%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (28x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 28.47 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.64
Bull Case
$40.08
(+114%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 31.3
Base Case
$36.44
(+94%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 28.5
Bear Case
$12.39
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.5 to 12.1
Stabilization Target:
$24.59
(+27.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+27.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 10:59 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:59 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:59 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BXMT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Marcin Urbaszek
SELL
452 shares
2026-03-17
Fernando Austin Pena
SELL
3131 shares
2025-12-31
Anthony F Marone Jr
SELL
1012 shares
2025-12-17
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