CALX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CALX - CALIX, INC.
$38.48
1.39 (3.75%)
▲
5d:
+9.32%
30d:
-2.56%
90d:
-17.9%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 20, 2026
16d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CALX trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -11.2% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CALX trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -11.2% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$106.75
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$66.28
41.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CALX is currently trading at $38.48, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $36.66 to $39.52. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 15.4) compared to its historical average (21.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 11.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CALX is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $38.68. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $66.00 (+71.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CALX is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $38.68. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $66.00 (+71.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$36.66 -
$39.52
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.7%)
- BULLISH: Trading 71.5% below Wall St target ($66.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$36.66 -
$39.52
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$34.86
Resistance Level
$38.68
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.37
Wall Street Target
$66.00
(+71.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
27.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-98.9%
Profit Margin
3.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-11.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.4 vs 21.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-11.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$34.63
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$31.17
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$28.05
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→22)
$39.96
(+4%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 40.8%)
$152.25
(+296%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.4, Growth: 40.8%)
$107.46
(+179%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.1, Growth: 40.8%)
$91.34
(+137%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 20.96 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.84
Bull Case
$46.46
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 22.0
Base Case
$38.48
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 21.0
Bear Case
$29.44
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 18.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.4 to 21.9
Stabilization Target:
$54.82
(+42.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+42.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 6:33 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:33 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:33 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is CALX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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