CARG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CARG - CarGurus, Inc. Class A Common Stock
$35.28
0.27 (0.77%)
▲
5d:
+2.71%
30d:
+14.92%
90d:
-8.7%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 14, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
CARG is down 6.4% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $37 2026-04-17 with 39 OI. Call ratio: 63% View Scanner →
Strength: 4.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CARG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CARG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$59.35
Based on 9.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$36.85
4.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CARG is currently trading at $35.28, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $30.36 to $34.60. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.0) is in line with its historical norms (12.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 19.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CARG is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $31.02, while resistance sits at $36.40.
Market Sentiment: CARG has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CARG is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $31.02, while resistance sits at $36.40.
Market Sentiment: CARG has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$30.36 -
$34.60
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.4%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($35.79)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$30.36 -
$34.60
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.60
(7.4%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$31.02
Resistance Level
$36.40
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.01
Wall Street Target
$35.79
(+2.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
19.5%
Profit Margin
17.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.0 vs 12.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$34.27
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$33.56
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$32.85
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→13)
$35.02
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 15.6%)
$100.85
(+188%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.0, Growth: 15.6%)
$54.06
(+54%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.2, Growth: 15.6%)
$45.95
(+31%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.14 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.96
Bull Case
$54.98
(+60%)
Analyst growth 48.8%, PE expands to 18.9
Base Case
$49.98
(+46%)
Market implied 48.8%, PE stable at 17.1
Bear Case
$22.85
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.0 to 12.8
Stabilization Target:
$37.32
(+6.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 4:59 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:59 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:59 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CARG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Stephen Kaufer
BUY
30766 shares
2026-03-03
Ismail Elshareef
SELL
1645 shares
2026-02-02
Jennifer Ladd Hanson
SELL
2358 shares
2025-12-31
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Advanced CARG Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CARG price and gamma walls.
