CHH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CHH - Choice Hotels Intnl.
$106.94
1.22 (1.15%)
▲
5d:
+0.34%
30d:
-9.41%
90d:
-2.82%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 12, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CHH shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CHH shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$147.07
Based on 6.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$91.32
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CHH is currently trading at $106.94, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $103.95 to $118.52. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.7) is in line with its historical norms (14.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHH is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $109.29. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHH is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $109.29. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$103.95 -
$118.52
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($112.53)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$103.95 -
$118.52
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$96.90
Resistance Level
$109.29
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.71
Wall Street Target
$112.53
(+5.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-53.2%
Profit Margin
35.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.7 vs 14.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$106.19
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$105.45
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$104.71
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→14)
$106.90
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 8.3%)
$218.67
(+105%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.7, Growth: 8.3%)
$135.86
(+27%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.7, Growth: 8.3%)
$115.48
(+8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.29 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.40
Bull Case
$122.56
(+15%)
Analyst growth 5.4%, PE expands to 15.7
Base Case
$111.41
(+4%)
Market implied 5.4%, PE stable at 14.3
Bear Case
$71.89
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.7 to 14.0
Stabilization Target:
$109.18
(+2.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 16, 2026 2:54 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:54 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:54 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CHH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Scott E Oaksmith
SELL
1603 shares
2026-03-18
Scott E Oaksmith
SELL
600 shares
2026-03-17
Simone Wu
SELL
8080 shares
2026-02-02
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