CM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CM - Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce
$111.30
-0.69 (-0.62%)
▼
5d:
+1.17%
30d:
+3.54%
90d:
+16.16%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 04, 2026
18d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CM is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.7% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: CM is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.7% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$139.51
Based on 6.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$86.63
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CM is currently trading at $111.30, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $105.01 to $111.88. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.0) is in line with its historical norms (9.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $109.44. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $109.44. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$105.01 -
$111.88
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
59.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($102.40)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$105.01 -
$111.88
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$109.44
Resistance Level
$113.21
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.04
Wall Street Target
$102.40
(-8.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
46.6%
Profit Margin
33.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.7% premium
PE vs Historical
10.0 vs 9.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$114.31
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$117.39
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$120.56
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$111.67
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 8.5%)
$312.42
(+181%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.0, Growth: 8.5%)
$142.13
(+28%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.5, Growth: 8.5%)
$120.81
(+9%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.00 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.00
Bull Case
$195.08
(+75%)
Analyst growth 58.4%, PE expands to 17.6
Base Case
$177.34
(+59%)
Market implied 58.4%, PE stable at 16.0
Bear Case
$76.15
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 16, 2026 3:51 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:51 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:51 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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