CMC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CMC - Commercial Metals Company
$61.73
0.52 (0.85%)
▲
5d:
-16.68%
30d:
-19.4%
90d:
-1.81%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 25, 2026
0d
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1 traders called CMC this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: CMC is down 16.7% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: CMC is down 16.7% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$108.34
Based on 7.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$67.27
8.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CMC is currently trading at $61.73, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $68.12 to $77.78. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.7) compared to its historical average (10.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 112.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMC is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $62.86. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $81.27 (+31.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMC is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $62.86. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $81.27 (+31.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$68.12 -
$77.78
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 31.7% below Wall St target ($81.27)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -16.7% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$68.12 -
$77.78
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$62.86
Resistance Level
$79.25
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jun 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.70
Wall Street Target
$81.27
(+31.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
22.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
112.3%
Profit Margin
6.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.7 vs 10.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$57.96
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$54.43
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$51.11
(-17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→11)
$61.71
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 11.6%)
$214.93
(+248%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.7, Growth: 11.6%)
$85.81
(+39%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.4, Growth: 11.6%)
$72.94
(+18%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.57 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.29
Bull Case
$90.35
(+46%)
Analyst growth 34.2%, PE expands to 12.7
Base Case
$82.14
(+33%)
Market implied 34.2%, PE stable at 11.6
Bear Case
$41.62
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.7 to 10.5
Stabilization Target:
$74.54
(+20.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+20.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 4:55 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:55 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:55 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CMC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Jennifer J Durbin
SELL
25050 shares
2026-02-03
Dennis V Arriola
BUY
2000 shares
2026-01-20
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