CMC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CMC - Commercial Metals Company
$71.25
-1.50 (-2.06%)
▼
5d:
+0.41%
30d:
+11.26%
90d:
-10.53%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 22, 2026
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1 traders called CMC this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CMC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: CMC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$94.07
Based on 5.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$58.41
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CMC is currently trading at $71.25, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $66.21 to $70.75. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.4) is in line with its historical norms (10.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 277.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMC is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $66.21, while resistance sits at $73.44.
Market Sentiment: CMC has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMC is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $66.21, while resistance sits at $73.44.
Market Sentiment: CMC has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$66.21 -
$70.75
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($77.80)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$66.21 -
$70.75
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$66.21
Resistance Level
$73.44
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.39
Wall Street Target
$77.80
(+9.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
277.3%
Profit Margin
6.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.4 vs 10.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$70.96
(0%)
2-Year Target
$70.68
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$70.40
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→11)
$71.13
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 7.0%)
$185.63
(+161%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.4, Growth: 7.0%)
$87.40
(+23%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.8, Growth: 7.0%)
$74.29
(+4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.28 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.47
Bull Case
$122.75
(+72%)
Analyst growth 53.4%, PE expands to 17.9
Base Case
$111.59
(+57%)
Market implied 53.4%, PE stable at 16.3
Bear Case
$49.47
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.4 to 10.5
Stabilization Target:
$71.99
(+1.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 5:59 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:59 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:59 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is CMC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Jennifer J Durbin
SELL
25050 shares
2026-02-03
Dennis V Arriola
BUY
2000 shares
2026-01-20
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