CMCM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CMCM - Cheetah Mobile Inc. American Depositary Shares, each representing fifty (50) Class A Ordinary Shares
$5.56
-0.34 (-5.76%)
▼
5d:
-21.13%
30d:
-9.59%
90d:
-12.3%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Mar 31, 2026
TODAY
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: CMCM is down 21.1% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: CMCM is down 21.1% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$8.80
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$5.46
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 3.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CMCM is currently trading at $5.56, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $6.01 to $7.27. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 3.5) compared to its historical average (3.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMCM is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $5.85. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $9.20 (+65.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMCM is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $5.85. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $9.20 (+65.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$6.01 -
$7.27
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-5.8%)
- BULLISH: Trading 65.4% below Wall St target ($9.20)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -21.1% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$6.01 -
$7.27
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$5.85
Resistance Level
$7.44
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
3.45
Wall Street Target
$9.20
(+65.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
30.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-99.5%
Profit Margin
-22.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
3.5 vs 3.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$5.35
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$5.16
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$4.97
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 3→4)
$5.61
(+1%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 3.5 to 3.9
Stabilization Target:
$6.28
(+12.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 6:59 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:59 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:59 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CMCM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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