CTRE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CTRE - CareTrust REIT, Inc
$41.76
0.86 (2.10%)
▲
5d:
+4.92%
30d:
+7.82%
90d:
+12.47%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CTRE is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.2% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: CTRE is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.2% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$39.63
Based on 0.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$24.61
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CTRE is currently trading at $41.76, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $37.12 to $40.69. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 24.0) is in line with its historical norms (22.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CTRE is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $40.88. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CTRE has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CTRE is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $40.88. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CTRE has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$37.12 -
$40.69
Company Quality Score
65/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding CTRE? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($45.31)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$37.12 -
$40.69
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$36.50
Resistance Level
$40.88
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 12, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.97
Wall Street Target
$45.31
(+8.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
5.0%
Profit Margin
64.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.2% premium
PE vs Historical
24.0 vs 22.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$42.68
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$43.62
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$44.58
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 24→23)
PE COMPRESSION
$41.85
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 24.0, Growth: -3.5%)
$37.57
(+-10%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: -3.5%)
$34.14
(-18%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: -3.5%)
$29.02
(-31%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (24x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.89 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.58
Bull Case
$49.62
(+19%)
Analyst growth 10.3%, PE expands to 28.5
Base Case
$45.11
(+8%)
Market implied 10.3%, PE stable at 25.9
Bear Case
$27.81
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 6:53 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:53 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:53 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CTRE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced CTRE Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CTRE price and gamma walls.
