CTRE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CTRE - CareTrust REIT, Inc
$41.36
-0.57 (-1.36%)
▼
5d:
-0.58%
30d:
+4.71%
90d:
+3.37%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 07, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
CTRE is up 3.9% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $40 2026-06-18 with 3 OI. Put ratio: 100% View Scanner →
Strength: 6.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CTRE is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.6% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: CTRE is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.6% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$63.82
Based on 9.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$39.63
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CTRE is currently trading at $41.36, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $38.22 to $40.70. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 23.5) is in line with its historical norms (22.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CTRE is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $38.80, while resistance sits at $43.08.
Market Sentiment: CTRE has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CTRE is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $38.80, while resistance sits at $43.08.
Market Sentiment: CTRE has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$38.22 -
$40.70
Company Quality Score
67/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding CTRE? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($43.67)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$38.22 -
$40.70
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$38.80
Resistance Level
$43.08
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.46
Wall Street Target
$43.67
(+4.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
5.0%
Profit Margin
64.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.6% premium
PE vs Historical
23.5 vs 22.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$42.60
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$43.28
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$43.98
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→22)
PE COMPRESSION
$41.99
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 23.5, Growth: 15.7%)
$64.93
(+55%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.0, Growth: 15.7%)
$61.01
(+46%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.7, Growth: 15.7%)
$51.86
(+24%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (27x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 26.86 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.58
Bull Case
$52.82
(+26%)
Analyst growth 13.1%, PE expands to 29.6
Base Case
$48.01
(+15%)
Market implied 13.1%, PE stable at 26.9
Bear Case
$28.86
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 1:48 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:48 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:48 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CTRE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced CTRE Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CTRE price and gamma walls.
