CVCO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CVCO - Cavco Industries Inc.
$495.58
11.29 (2.33%)
▲
5d:
+2.08%
30d:
-12.04%
90d:
-17.32%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 21, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
CVCO is down 5.7% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $460 2026-06-18 with 1 OI. Call ratio: 100% View Scanner →
Strength: 7.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CVCO trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.3% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CVCO trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.3% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$685.21
Based on 4.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$425.46
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CVCO is currently trading at $495.58, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $475.13 to $561.54. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 19.4) compared to its historical average (22.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVCO is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $506.53. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $587.50 (+21.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVCO is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $506.53. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $587.50 (+21.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$475.13 -
$561.54
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.3% below Wall St target ($587.50)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$475.13 -
$561.54
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$27.95
(5.6%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$454.87
Resistance Level
$506.53
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.37
Wall Street Target
$587.50
(+21.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-19.1%
Profit Margin
8.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.4 vs 22.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$463.47
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$443.54
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$424.46
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→22)
$484.25
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 4.8%)
$642.73
(+33%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.4, Growth: 4.8%)
$557.08
(+15%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.5, Growth: 4.8%)
$473.51
(-2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.00 | Current EPS (TTM): $23.01
Bull Case
$549.95
(+16%)
Analyst growth 8.6%, PE expands to 22.0
Base Case
$499.96
(+6%)
Market implied 8.6%, PE stable at 20.0
Bear Case
$312.91
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.4 to 22.1
Stabilization Target:
$552.50
(+14.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 01, 2026 12:55 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:55 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:55 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CVCO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
5
Buys
1
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
David A Greenblatt
BUY
87 shares
2026-02-04
William C Boor
BUY
1000 shares
2026-02-04
Michael T. McCaul
BUY
2026-02-04
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Advanced CVCO Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CVCO price and gamma walls.