CVCO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CVCO - Cavco Industries Inc.
$492.02
-125.48 (-20.32%)
▼
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Jan 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: CVCO is down 26.3% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: CVCO is down 26.3% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$1142.87
Based on 11.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$709.63
30.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CVCO is currently trading at $492.02, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $589.96 to $678.68. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 21.3) is in line with its historical norms (23.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 24.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVCO is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $490.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 20.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVCO is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $490.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 20.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$589.96 -
$678.68
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
Protect Your Profits
Holding CVCO? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-20.3%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($605.00)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -26.3% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$589.96 -
$678.68
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$490.00
Resistance Level
$713.01
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.29
Wall Street Target
$605.00
(-2.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
24.1%
Profit Margin
9.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
21.3 vs 23.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$599.59
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$582.20
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$565.32
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→23)
$618.60
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 18.4%)
$1072.50
(+74%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.3, Growth: 18.4%)
$1024.08
(+66%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.1, Growth: 18.4%)
$870.47
(+41%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.39 | Current EPS (TTM): $24.27
Bull Case
$809.80
(+65%)
Analyst growth 19.5%, PE expands to 27.9
Base Case
$736.19
(+50%)
Market implied 19.5%, PE stable at 25.4
Bear Case
$418.96
(-15%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.3 to 23.3
Stabilization Target:
$675.70
(+9.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.4%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 12:11 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:11 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:11 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CVCO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Paul Bigbee
SELL
300 shares
2025-08-29
Paul Bigbee
SELL
300 shares
2025-08-22
Susan L Blount
SELL
2500 shares
2025-08-22
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Advanced CVCO Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CVCO price and gamma walls.