CVLT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CVLT - Commault Systems, Inc.
$103.90
1.85 (1.81%)
▲
5d:
-1.13%
30d:
+9.53%
90d:
+18.57%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 28, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CVLT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: CVLT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$168.16
Based on 9.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$104.41
0.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CVLT is currently trading at $103.90, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $90.73 to $102.78. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 21.5) is in line with its historical norms (22.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVLT is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $107.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $133.20 (+28.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVLT is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $107.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $133.20 (+28.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$90.73 -
$102.78
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
51.0%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 28.2% below Wall St target ($133.20)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$90.73 -
$102.78
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$97.14
Resistance Level
$107.00
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.52
Wall Street Target
$133.20
(+28.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-50.2%
Profit Margin
6.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
21.5 vs 22.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$103.07
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$102.24
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$101.43
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→22)
$103.68
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 15.4%)
$163.76
(+58%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.5, Growth: 15.4%)
$159.69
(+54%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.3, Growth: 15.4%)
$135.74
(+31%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 19.84 | Forward EPS (Implied): $5.24
Bull Case
$125.46
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 20.8
Base Case
$103.90
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 19.8
Bear Case
$79.48
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 17.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.5 to 22.0
Stabilization Target:
$106.20
(+2.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 6:07 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:07 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:07 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CVLT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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SELL
10052 shares
2026-03-17
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SELL
10338 shares
2026-03-16
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SELL
1892 shares
2026-02-19
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