CVLT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CVLT - Commault Systems, Inc.
$149.98
2.96 (2.01%)
▲
5d:
+11.98%
30d:
+22.81%
90d:
+91.28%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
30d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: CVLT is 9.2% above its trading range ($137.32). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: CVLT is 9.2% above its trading range ($137.32). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$174.27
Based on 9.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$108.21
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CVLT is currently trading at $149.98, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $116.21 to $137.32. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 31.1) compared to its historical average (22.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 10.9% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVLT is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $129.86. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CVLT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVLT is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $129.86. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CVLT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$116.21 -
$137.32
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
53.3%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+9.2% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($135.20)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 10.9% growth with 13.3% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$116.21 -
$137.32
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$116.93
Resistance Level
$129.86
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 12, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
31.07
Wall Street Target
$135.20
(-9.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-50.2%
Profit Margin
6.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+10.9% premium
PE vs Historical
31.1 vs 22.8
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+10.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$166.33
(+11%)
2-Year Target
$184.46
(+23%)
3-Year Target
$204.56
(+36%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 31→23)
PE COMPRESSION
$150.12
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 31.1, Growth: 15.4%)
$230.52
(+54%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 15.4%)
$161.60
(+8%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 15.4%)
$137.36
(-8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 27.78 | Forward EPS (Implied): $5.40
Bull Case
$181.10
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 29.2
Base Case
$149.98
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 27.8
Bear Case
$114.73
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 25.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 6:39 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:39 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:39 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CVLT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Sanjay Mirchandani
SELL
10052 shares
2026-03-17
Sanjay Mirchandani
SELL
10338 shares
2026-03-16
Gary Merrill
SELL
1892 shares
2026-02-19
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