CXW Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CXW - CoreCivic, Inc.
$18.53
-0.22 (-1.17%)
▼
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 11, 2026
10d
Get Alerted When CXW Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CXW shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: CXW shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$37.43
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$23.24
20.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CXW is currently trading at $18.53, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $18.97 to $20.01. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.1) is in line with its historical norms (12.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 26.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CXW is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $18.11. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $29.88 (+59.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CXW is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $18.11. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $29.88 (+59.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$18.97 -
$20.01
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding CXW? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 59.3% below Wall St target ($29.88)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -7.7% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$18.97 -
$20.01
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$18.12
Resistance Level
$20.98
Current Trend
Sideways
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.10
Wall Street Target
$29.88
(+59.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
26.3%
Profit Margin
5.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.1 vs 12.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$18.58
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$18.41
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$18.25
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→12)
$18.71
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 49.5%)
$115.52
(+516%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.1, Growth: 49.5%)
$62.67
(+234%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.3, Growth: 49.5%)
$53.27
(+184%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.47 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.00
Bull Case
$31.49
(+70%)
Analyst growth 55.0%, PE expands to 20.3
Base Case
$28.63
(+55%)
Market implied 55.0%, PE stable at 18.5
Bear Case
$12.56
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.1 to 12.4
Stabilization Target:
$19.22
(+2.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.5%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 2:43 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:43 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:43 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is CXW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Anthony L Grande
SELL
22500 shares
2025-09-11
Anthony L Grande
SELL
12500 shares
2025-09-09
Thurgood Marshall Jr
SELL
6000 shares
2025-09-09
Top Rated Security & Protection Services Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Security & Protection Services by analyst ratings.
Advanced CXW Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CXW price and gamma walls.
