CXW Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CXW - CoreCivic, Inc.
$19.07
-0.37 (-1.90%)
▼
5d:
-5.73%
30d:
+7.86%
90d:
-0.78%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CXW shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: CXW shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$43.43
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$26.97
29.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CXW is currently trading at $19.07, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $17.35 to $19.65. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.2) compared to its historical average (10.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 42.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CXW is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $19.08. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CXW has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $29.80 (+56.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CXW is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $19.08. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CXW has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $29.80 (+56.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$17.35 -
$19.65
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
76.2%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 56.3% below Wall St target ($29.80)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -5.7% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$17.35 -
$19.65
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$19.08
Resistance Level
$20.72
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.23
Wall Street Target
$29.80
(+56.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
26.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
42.4%
Profit Margin
5.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.2 vs 10.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$18.12
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$17.21
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$16.35
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→11)
$19.12
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 28.1%)
$96.93
(+408%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.2, Growth: 28.1%)
$40.05
(+110%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.8, Growth: 28.1%)
$34.04
(+79%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.02 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.08
Bull Case
$42.81
(+112%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 19.8
Base Case
$38.92
(+92%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 18.0
Bear Case
$13.23
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.2 to 10.8
Stabilization Target:
$22.30
(+16.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 3:03 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:03 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:03 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CXW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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