DECK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
DECK - Deckers Outdoor Corp
$98.39
-2.52 (-2.50%)
▼
5d:
+5.02%
30d:
-9.52%
90d:
-5.09%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 21, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
DECK is down 4.3% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $130 2026-06-18 with 796 OI. Call ratio: 68% View Scanner →
Strength: 4.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: DECK shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: DECK shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$141.02
Based on 5.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$87.56
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: DECK is currently trading at $98.39, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $97.80 to $112.99. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.8) is in line with its historical norms (15.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 11.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DECK is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $92.56, while resistance sits at $105.19.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $128.52 (+27.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DECK is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $92.56, while resistance sits at $105.19.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $128.52 (+27.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$97.80 -
$112.99
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 27.4% below Wall St target ($128.52)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$97.80 -
$112.99
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$92.56
Resistance Level
$105.19
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.80
Wall Street Target
$128.52
(+27.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
11.0%
Profit Margin
19.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.8 vs 15.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$98.08
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$95.34
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$92.67
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→15)
$100.76
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 6.3%)
$196.31
(+95%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.8, Growth: 6.3%)
$121.17
(+20%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.7, Growth: 6.3%)
$103.00
(+2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.27 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.04
Bull Case
$114.78
(+12%)
Analyst growth 3.9%, PE expands to 15.7
Base Case
$104.35
(+2%)
Market implied 3.9%, PE stable at 14.3
Bear Case
$68.29
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.8 to 15.0
Stabilization Target:
$109.72
(+8.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 1:58 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:58 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:58 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is DECK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
11
Buys
8
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Lauri M Shanahan
SELL
4682 shares
2026-02-13
Robin Spring-Green
SELL
347 shares
2026-02-13
Anne Spangenberg
SELL
4063 shares
2026-02-13
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