ECG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ECG - Everus Construction Group, Inc.
$118.06
6.73 (6.05%)
▲
5d:
-2.26%
30d:
-1.04%
90d:
+32.92%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 12, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
ECG is up 3.3% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $115 2026-05-15 with 204 OI. Put ratio: 82% View Scanner →
Strength: 4.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
🚀 STRONG BUY: ECG shows excellent value with unusually cheap options (IV 29th percentile) and market pricing in only 2.7% annual growth despite strong fundamentals. High conviction opportunity.
🚀 STRONG BUY: ECG shows excellent value with unusually cheap options (IV 29th percentile) and market pricing in only 2.7% annual growth despite strong fundamentals. High conviction opportunity.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$151.47
Based on 6.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$94.05
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ECG is currently trading at $118.06, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $110.84 to $121.21. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 25.9) is in line with its historical norms (23.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ECG is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $108.51, while resistance sits at $124.53. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 6.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (29th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ECG is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $108.51, while resistance sits at $124.53. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 6.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (29th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$110.84 -
$121.21
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
29th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.5%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 29th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+6.0%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($129.40)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$110.84 -
$121.21
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$10.59
(9.0%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$108.51
Resistance Level
$124.53
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
25.86
Wall Street Target
$129.40
(+9.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
33.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
60.2%
Profit Margin
5.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.7% premium
PE vs Historical
25.9 vs 23.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$121.25
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$124.52
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$127.88
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 26→24)
PE COMPRESSION
$118.18
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 25.9, Growth: 9.6%)
$155.45
(+32%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.4, Growth: 9.6%)
$134.34
(+14%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 9.6%)
$114.19
(-3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (28x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (26x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 28.09 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.95
Bull Case
$141.05
(+20%)
Analyst growth 15.6%, PE expands to 30.9
Base Case
$128.22
(+9%)
Market implied 15.6%, PE stable at 28.1
Bear Case
$75.45
(-36%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 01, 2026 2:29 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:29 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:29 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ECG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Helena Mercedes Hernandez
BUY
250 shares
2025-12-08
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Advanced ECG Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ECG price and gamma walls.
