EPRT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
EPRT - Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc.
$30.36
0.31 (1.03%)
▲
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 11, 2026
11d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
ℹ️ NEUTRAL: EPRT is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -0.6% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
ℹ️ NEUTRAL: EPRT is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -0.6% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$39.75
Based on 5.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$24.68
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: EPRT is currently trading at $30.36, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $29.63 to $30.50. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 22.1) is in line with its historical norms (22.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 19.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EPRT is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $31.20. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: EPRT has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $36.00 (+19.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EPRT is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $31.20. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: EPRT has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $36.00 (+19.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$29.63 -
$30.50
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
40.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding EPRT? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($36.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$29.63 -
$30.50
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$29.30
Resistance Level
$31.20
Current Trend
Sideways
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.12
Wall Street Target
$36.00
(+19.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
23.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
19.8%
Profit Margin
45.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
22.1 vs 22.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$29.87
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$29.69
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$29.51
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→23)
$30.16
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 6.6%)
$36.72
(+22%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.1, Growth: 6.6%)
$36.42
(+21%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.8, Growth: 6.6%)
$30.95
(+3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.14 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.25
Bull Case
$36.09
(+20%)
Analyst growth 8.7%, PE expands to 26.6
Base Case
$32.81
(+9%)
Market implied 8.7%, PE stable at 24.1
Bear Case
$20.52
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 22.1 to 22.6
Stabilization Target:
$30.71
(+2.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.2%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 5:54 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:54 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:54 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is EPRT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced EPRT Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's EPRT price and gamma walls.
