EPRT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
EPRT - Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc.
$30.77
0.39 (1.28%)
▲
5d:
-1.69%
30d:
-9.34%
90d:
+3.64%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 22, 2026
22d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: EPRT shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: EPRT shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$39.20
Based on 4.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$24.34
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: EPRT is currently trading at $30.77, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $31.59 to $34.12. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 22.3) is in line with its historical norms (23.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 11.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EPRT is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $30.31. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $37.05 (+20.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EPRT is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $30.31. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $37.05 (+20.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$31.59 -
$34.12
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 20.4% below Wall St target ($37.05)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$31.59 -
$34.12
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$30.31
Resistance Level
$33.40
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.29
Wall Street Target
$37.05
(+20.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
25.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
11.1%
Profit Margin
45.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
22.3 vs 23.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$30.43
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$30.10
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$29.77
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→23)
$30.72
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 4.6%)
$35.31
(+15%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 4.6%)
$35.21
(+14%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.9, Growth: 4.6%)
$29.93
(-3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.77 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.28
Bull Case
$37.63
(+20%)
Analyst growth 7.9%, PE expands to 27.3
Base Case
$34.20
(+9%)
Market implied 7.9%, PE stable at 24.8
Bear Case
$21.56
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 22.3 to 23.0
Stabilization Target:
$31.76
(+3.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 5:57 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:57 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:57 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is EPRT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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