ERIC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

ERIC - Ericsson American Depositary Shares

Radio & Tv Broadcasting & Communications Equipment
$11.07
-0.08 (-0.67%) ▼
5d: -2.25%
30d: -4.61%
90d: +14.31%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 17, 2026 17d

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡
Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ERIC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.0% decline. Moderate conviction.

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$11.47
Based on 0.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$7.12
Trading above fair value

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.6x Exit PE.

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: ERIC is currently trading at $11.06, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.15 to $11.60. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.1) is in line with its historical norms (16.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 79.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, ERIC is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $11.08. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range $11.15 - $11.60
Company Quality Score 56/100 (HOLD)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 72.4%

All Signals

  • BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
  • NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($10.08)

Fair Price Analysis

30-Day Fair Range $11.15 - $11.60
Current vs Fair Value OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $11.08
Resistance Level $12.12
Current Trend Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of Mar 30, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 16.09
Wall Street Target $10.08 (-9.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) -5.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY) 79.2%
Profit Margin 12.0%
Valuation Discount vs History -1.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical 16.1 vs 16.6 FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): -1.0% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $11.03 (-1%)
2-Year Target $10.92 (-2%)
3-Year Target $10.81 (-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 16→17) $11.15 (+0%)
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 22.4, Growth: -4.0%) $13.72 (+23%)
Base: (SPY PE: 16.1, Growth: -4.0%) $9.85 (-12%)
Bear: (PE: 13.7, Growth: -4.0%) $8.37 (-25%)
📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 12.42 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.90
Bull Case $9.46 (-16%)
Analyst growth -23.1%, PE expands to 13.7
Base Case $8.60 (-24%)
Market implied -23.1%, PE stable at 12.4
Bear Case $7.60 (-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡 Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.1 to 16.6
Stabilization Target: $11.50 (+3.2%)
PE Expansion Potential: +3.2%
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Last updated: March 30, 2026 3:08 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:08 PM
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
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NEUTRAL

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