ERO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ERO - Ero Copper Corp.
$24.93
-0.12 (-0.48%)
▼
5d:
+0.69%
30d:
-27.06%
90d:
-10.9%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 04, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
ERO is down 7.7% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $30 2026-05-15 with 7,049 OI. Call ratio: 90% View Scanner →
Strength: 7.9/10
Get Alerted When ERO Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ERO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 8.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ERO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 8.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$39.89
Based on 4.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$24.77
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ERO is currently trading at $24.93, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $24.94 to $31.74. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.4) compared to its historical average (7.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ERO is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $22.41, while resistance sits at $27.33.
Market Sentiment: ERO has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (21th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $35.63 (+42.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ERO is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $22.41, while resistance sits at $27.33.
Market Sentiment: ERO has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (21th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $35.63 (+42.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$24.94 -
$31.74
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
21th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 21th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 42.2% below Wall St target ($35.63)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$24.94 -
$31.74
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.24
(9.0%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$22.41
Resistance Level
$27.33
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.44
Wall Street Target
$35.63
(+42.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
161.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-11.0%
Profit Margin
33.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.4 vs 7.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$22.95
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$21.02
(-16%)
3-Year Target
$19.25
(-23%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5→7)
$25.14
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 4.1%)
$116.39
(+365%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.4, Growth: 4.1%)
$28.25
(+13%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.6, Growth: 4.1%)
$24.01
(-4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (5x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.32 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.53
Bull Case
$46.08
(+86%)
Analyst growth 77.6%, PE expands to 10.3
Base Case
$41.89
(+69%)
Market implied 77.6%, PE stable at 9.3
Bear Case
$16.04
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.4 to 7.1
Stabilization Target:
$32.71
(+30.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+30.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 4:24 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:24 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:24 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is ERO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Copper Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Copper by analyst ratings.
Advanced ERO Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ERO price and gamma walls.
