ERO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ERO - Ero Copper Corp.
$33.51
-4.52 (-11.89%)
ā¼
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Mar 05, 2026
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2 traders called ERO this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
š HOLD: ERO trades at premium valuation expecting 9.7% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
š HOLD: ERO trades at premium valuation expecting 9.7% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$56.19
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$34.89
4.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ERO is currently trading at $33.51, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $27.78 to $33.28. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 9.4) compared to its historical average (7.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 9.7% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ERO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $28.62, while resistance sits at $39.80. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 11.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: ERO has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $33.67. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ERO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $28.62, while resistance sits at $39.80. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 11.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: ERO has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $33.67. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$27.78 -
$33.28
Company Quality Score
65/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
51.0%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ERO? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-11.9%)
- BEARISH: Trading 11.5% above Wall St target ($33.67)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 9.7% growth with 41.9% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$27.78 -
$33.28
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$28.62
Resistance Level
$39.80
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.36
Wall Street Target
$33.67
(-11.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
41.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-11.0%
Profit Margin
23.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+9.7% premium
PE vs Historical
9.4 vs 7.1
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+9.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$41.72
(+10%)
2-Year Target
$45.77
(+20%)
3-Year Target
$50.20
(+32%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9ā7)
PE COMPRESSION
$38.09
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 85.6%)
$305.86
(+704%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.4, Growth: 85.6%)
$128.35
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.1, Growth: 85.6%)
$97.38
(+156%)
š
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (27x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 27.14 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.33
Bull Case
$79.42
(+137%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 29.9
Base Case
$72.20
(+116%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 27.1
Bear Case
$24.55
(-27%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 12:09 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:09 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:09 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ERO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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