HBM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HBM - Hudbay Minerals Inc.
$24.70
-0.25 (-1.00%)
▼
5d:
-3.14%
30d:
-4.56%
90d:
-1.95%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 11, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
HBM is down 10.8% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $30 2026-07-17 with 2,856 OI. Call ratio: 89% View Scanner →
Strength: 9.3/10
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4 traders called HBM this week
75% bullish • 1 bearish
75% bullish • 1 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HBM appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -3.7% annual earnings decline despite 92% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HBM appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -3.7% annual earnings decline despite 92% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$54.49
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$33.83
27.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HBM is currently trading at $24.70, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $22.75 to $25.81. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.6) compared to its historical average (13.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 91.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HBM is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $21.74, while resistance sits at $28.42.
Market Sentiment: HBM has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $32.65 (+30.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HBM is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $21.74, while resistance sits at $28.42.
Market Sentiment: HBM has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $32.65 (+30.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$22.75 -
$25.81
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 30.9% below Wall St target ($32.65)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$22.75 -
$25.81
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$21.74
Resistance Level
$28.42
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.59
Wall Street Target
$32.65
(+30.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
27.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
91.9%
Profit Margin
27.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.6 vs 13.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$24.03
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$23.14
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$22.28
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→13)
$24.99
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 35.0%)
$116.87
(+368%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.6, Growth: 35.0%)
$61.38
(+146%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.9, Growth: 35.0%)
$52.18
(+109%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.34 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.67
Bull Case
$38.69
(+55%)
Analyst growth 28.9%, PE expands to 18.0
Base Case
$35.17
(+41%)
Market implied 28.9%, PE stable at 16.3
Bear Case
$18.56
(-26%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.6 to 13.0
Stabilization Target:
$27.98
(+12.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 9:59 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:59 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:59 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HBM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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