ESNT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ESNT - Essent Group LTD
$62.92
-0.58 (-0.91%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 13, 2026
12d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ESNT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.1% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ESNT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.1% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$77.27
Based on 4.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$47.98
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ESNT is currently trading at $62.92, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $61.22 to $65.20. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.7) is in line with its historical norms (8.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ESNT is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $63.50. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ESNT is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $63.50. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$61.22 -
$65.20
Company Quality Score
65/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
41th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 41th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($68.62)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$61.22 -
$65.20
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$4.41
(7.0%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$60.29
Resistance Level
$63.50
Current Trend
Sideways
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.66
Wall Street Target
$68.63
(+8.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1.2%
Profit Margin
55.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.1% premium
PE vs Historical
8.7 vs 8.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$63.56
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$63.63
(+0%)
3-Year Target
$63.69
(+0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$63.25
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 4.3%)
$185.61
(+192%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.7, Growth: 4.3%)
$72.09
(+14%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.4, Growth: 4.3%)
$61.27
(-4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.03 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.88
Bull Case
$72.81
(+16%)
Analyst growth 6.6%, PE expands to 9.9
Base Case
$66.19
(+5%)
Market implied 6.6%, PE stable at 9.0
Bear Case
$42.23
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 1:02 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:02 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:02 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ESNT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Mary Lourdes Gibbons
SELL
4000 shares
2025-09-18
Vijay Bhasin
SELL
11479 shares
2025-09-18
David B Weinstock
SELL
2500 shares
2025-09-15
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