ESNT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ESNT - Essent Group LTD
$58.20
0.46 (0.80%)
ā²
5d:
+0.92%
30d:
-4.34%
90d:
-11.63%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 08, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
ā BUY SIGNAL: ESNT shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
ā BUY SIGNAL: ESNT shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$85.34
Based on 5.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$52.99
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ESNT is currently trading at $58.20, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $57.65 to $60.13. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.5) is in line with its historical norms (8.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 0.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ESNT is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $56.73. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ESNT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $68.06 (+16.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ESNT is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $56.73. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ESNT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $68.06 (+16.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$57.65 -
$60.13
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
51th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
84.6%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 51th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($68.06)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$57.65 -
$60.13
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
Ā±$3.71
(6.4%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$56.73
Resistance Level
$58.78
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.50
Wall Street Target
$68.06
(+16.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
0.9%
Profit Margin
54.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.5 vs 8.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$56.28
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$54.42
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$52.63
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8ā8)
$58.23
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 7.6%)
$215.98
(+271%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.5, Growth: 7.6%)
$72.48
(+25%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.4, Growth: 7.6%)
$61.61
(+6%)
š
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.28 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.90
Bull Case
$70.71
(+23%)
Analyst growth 12.5%, PE expands to 9.1
Base Case
$64.28
(+12%)
Market implied 12.5%, PE stable at 8.3
Bear Case
$38.87
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
š”
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.5 to 8.3
Stabilization Target:
$64.40
(+10.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 2:00 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:00 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:00 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ESNT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Mary Lourdes Gibbons
SELL
4352 shares
2025-12-18
Roy James Kasmar
SELL
3250 shares
2025-11-14
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Advanced ESNT Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ESNT price and gamma walls.
