ESRT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ESRT - EMPIRE STATE REALTY TRUST, INC.
$6.56
0.03 (0.46%)
▲
5d:
-1.5%
30d:
+1.39%
90d:
-11.23%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: February 3, 2026
Earnings: Feb 17, 2026
12d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ESRT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ESRT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ESRT is currently trading at $6.56, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $6.36 to $6.63. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 109.3) is in line with its historical norms (110.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ESRT is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $6.38. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ESRT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $7.76 (+18.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ESRT is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $6.38. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ESRT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $7.76 (+18.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$6.36 -
$6.63
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
59.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($7.76)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$6.36 -
$6.63
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$6.38
Resistance Level
$6.78
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
109.33
Wall Street Target
$7.76
(+18.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-42.2%
Profit Margin
5.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
109.3 vs 110.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$6.53
(0%)
2-Year Target
$6.51
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$6.48
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 109→111)
$6.56
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 109.3, Growth: -14.3%)
$4.78
(+-27%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: -14.3%)
$0.98
(-85%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: -14.3%)
$0.83
(-87%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 32.65 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.20
Bull Case
$3.59
(-45%)
Analyst growth -50.0%, PE expands to 35.9
Base Case
$3.27
(-50%)
Market implied -50.0%, PE stable at 32.7
Bear Case
$4.44
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 27.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 109.3 to 110.6
Stabilization Target:
$6.64
(+1.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.2%
Last updated: February 04, 2026 3:44 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:44 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:44 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ESRT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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